| 摘要: |
| 本文通过分析2013～2022年赫章县降水天气的特征并结合近10次诱发灾害的强降水天气过程降水特征和灾情信息，对赫章县强降水天气“三个叫应”气象服务机制阈值进行研究分析，并提修改工作建议，以使赫章县强降水天气“三个叫应”更符合本地实际。研究表明：（1）赫章降水量总体呈西北少东南多的分布趋势，最大小时降水量总体呈西北高东南低分布趋势。（2）赫章致灾强降水主要分布在北部的德卓、河镇、结构、可乐、辅处、安乐，中东部的财神、达依，东南部的威奢、珠市、松林一带，致灾强降水持续时间在6小时左右。（3）赫章县强降水主要时段为15:00～06：00，需重点值守，合理安排值守班。（4）赫章北部乡镇承灾能力偏弱，东南部乡镇承灾能力相对较强。（5）以辖区内有站点1h累计降水量达30mm，3h累计降水量达50mm、80mm，6h累计降水量达70mm、100mm、130mm或12雨量达到180mm及以上且降水可能持续时，作为启动四级、三级、二级、一级叫应的标准。 |
| 关键词: 赫章县；三个叫应；强降水阈值 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-06-12修订日期：2024-09-12 |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Analysis on Thresholds of the "Three-Tier Alert System'' forIntense Rainfall Weather in Hezhang County |
| kecangjin,keliping,lidezhang,hanyaping,chenyuxiang |
| (Meteorological Bureau of Hezhang County, Guizhou province;Meteorological Bureau of Bijie City, Guizhou province) |
| Abstract: |
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the scientificity and rationality of the three-tier alertsystem" threshold settings for heavy precipitation weather in Hezhang County and make the system more in line withthe local realities in Hezhang County. By using the precipitation data of 10 disastrous severe precipitation and thedisaster information in Hezhang County from 2013 to 2022, and the mathematical statistical analysis method, thispaper analyzes the threshold values of the " three-tier alert system" of meteorological service mechanism for heavyprecipitation weather in Hezhang County and provides suggestions for improvement. The analysis results are asfollows: (1 ) T''he overall precipitation in Hezhang County exhibits a trend of less in the northwest and more in thesoutheast , while the maximum houny precipitation generally shows a distribution of more in the northwest and lessin the southeast. (2 ) Disaster-causing severe precipitation in Hezhang County is mainly distributed in Dezhuo,Hezhen , jiegou , Kele , Fuchu , Anle in the northern part, Caishen, Dayi in the central-eastem part, and Weishe.Zhushi, Songlinpo in the southeastern part. The duration of the disaster-causing intense precipitation is approximately 6 hours. (3 ) The primary period of heavy precipitation in Hezhang County is from 15 :00 to 06 :00the next day. (4 ) Townships in the northern paut of Hezhang County have weaker disaster-bearing capacities, whilethose in the southeast have relatively stronger capacities. (5 ) When the hourly precipitation in the jurisdictionreaches 30 mm or more, and heavy rainfall is expected to continue, the fourth-level alert is iniiated. When theaccumulated precipitation at a station within the jurisdiction reaches 50 mm in 3 h or 70 mm in 6 h or more, andprecipitation is expected to continue, the third-level alert is initiated. When the accumulated precipitation at astation within the jurisdiction reaches 80 mm in 3 h or 100 mm in 6 h or more, and precipitation is likely tocontinue , the second-level alert is initiated. When the accumulated precipitation at a station within the jurisdictionreaches 130 mm in 6 h or 200 mm in 12 h or more, and precipitation is expected to continue, the first-level alert isinitiated. To sum up, this paper cleary deines the reasonable thresholds for the "three-tier alert system" for severerainfall weather in Hezhang County, and could provide a support for enhancing the local capacity to respond tometeomlogical disasters. |
| Key words: Hezhang County; Three-Tier Alert System; Severe Rainfall Thresholds |
