| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为揭示2000年以来贵州最强梅汛期降水异常成因。【方法】利用天擎降水资料挑选出了2000年以来贵州最强梅汛期年份及其降水特征，再利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及风云FY-2G黑体亮温（TBB）资料诊断分析了最强梅汛期贵州降水异常偏多的原因及极端降水成因。【结果】（1）2020年梅汛期贵州累计降水量是1961年以来的次多年、是2000年以来的降水最异常年份；暴雨集中在6月上旬至7月上旬，6月23日和29日降水强度具有极端性；（2）2020年梅汛期贵州频繁的暴雨过程及极端暴雨与江淮梅雨的大背景密不可分；（3）2020年梅汛期影响贵州的中尺度低涡系统频繁，中尺度对流系统十分活跃。这些中尺度系统大多初生于贵州西部，在贵州省内发展加强，并产生暴雨天气，MCC是6月23日及29日极端降水的直接影响系统；（4）2020年梅汛期低空急流异常活跃，尤其是6月下旬初、下旬末及7月上旬后期出现了3段持续时间长强度强劲的低空急流，这为梅汛期的持续性暴雨过程、范围最广的3次暴雨过程及极端暴雨提供了异常充沛的水汽条件。【结论】研究结果以期为进一步做好梅汛期持续性暴雨、致洪暴雨和极端暴雨预报提供依据。 |
| 关键词: 梅汛期；降水异常；极端降水；中尺度对流系统；低空急流 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-08修订日期：2024-05-08 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Analysis of the Causes of the Abnormal Precipitation during the Strongest Plum Rainy Season in Guizhou since 2000 |
| DU Xiaoling,LAN Wei,CHEN Bo |
| (Guizhou Meteorological Observatory;Meteorological Office of Bouyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture in Qianxinan of Guizhou Province) |
| Abstract: |
| To reveal the causes of the abnormal precipitation during the strongest plum rainy season in Guizhou since 2000, the Tianqing precipitation data was used to identify the years with the strongest plum rainy season in Guizhou since 2000 and their precipitation characteristics. Furthermore, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Fengyun FY-2G blackbody brightness temperature (TBB) data were utilized to diagnose and analyze the reasons for the abnormally high precipitation in Guizhou during the strongest plum rainy season and the causes of extreme precipitation. The conclusions are as follows:(1)In the plum rainy season of 2020, the cumulative precipitation in Guizhou was the second-highest since 1961 and the most anomalous year since 2000. The rainstorms were concentrated from early June to early July, with extreme precipitation intensities on June 23rd and 29th.(2)The frequent rainstorm processes and extreme rainstorms in Guizhou during the plum rainy season of 2020 were closely related to the general background of the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin plum rains.(3)During the plum rainy season of 2020, mesoscale low-vortex systems that influenced Guizhou were frequent, and mesoscale convective systems were very active. Most of these mesoscale systems were initially formed in the western part of Guizhou, developed and strengthened within the province, and led to heavy rainfall weather. Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) were the direct influencing systems for the extreme precipitation on June 23rd and 29th.(4)In the plum rainy season of 2020, the low-level jet stream was abnormally active, especially in the early and late parts of late June and the late part of early July, with three sustained and intense low-level jet streams. This provided exceptionally abundant water vapor conditions for the persistent heavy rain processes, the three most widespread rainstorm processes, and extreme rainstorms during the plum rainy season. The research results aim to provide a basis for further improving the forecasting of persistent heavy rain, flood-inducing rainstorms, and extreme rainstorms during the plum rainy season. |
| Key words: Plum Rainy Season; Abnormal Precipitation; Extreme Precipitation; Mesoscale Convective System; Low-Level Jet Stream |
