| 摘要: |
| 近百年来,全球变暖背景下,降水、气温在全球各区域发生了明显变化。贵州喀斯特地貌对气候干湿变化敏感,研究区域内代表性台站百年气候干湿演变,有利于预测未来气候和应对气候风险。研究基于贵阳近百年温度、降水量相较于早期(1921～1950)气候平均值、标准差的距平和相对距平,揭示了贵阳近百年气候与早期气候相比的干湿演变过程。结果表明,1921～2023年,贵阳气温升温趋势显著,降水量呈不显著减少趋势。气候暖干化明显,偏暖、偏干气候分别为64年、62年,其中暖干42年,暖湿22年,冷湿19年,冷干20年。贵阳气候经历了冷湿(1921～1936年)到暖湿(1937～1953年),冷湿冷干并存,冷干占优(1954～1986年)到暖干居多(1987～2011年),2012年后,气候向暖湿化发展。103年间,气温出现显著偏差年份占比达到五分之一,偏高年份接近三分之一,偏低11年,出现异常偏暖6年,异常偏冷1年。降水量没有异常偏差年份,1936年等共6年,降水量偏少,降水量偏多仅有1954年。秋冬季气候偏干、偏暖明显,秋季特别突出,偏暖74年,偏干70年,夏季是贵阳气候最为稳定的季节,气温、降水变化趋势均不显著。未来,贵阳必须在夏季做好储水工作,应对秋冬季极端干暖化气候。 |
| 关键词: 贵阳;气候;干湿演变 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-06修订日期：2024-07-12 |
| 基金项目:2021年山洪项目-信息网络支撑系统之档案数字化系统 |
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| Climate Change and the Dry-humid Evolution in Guiyang in the Past 100 Years |
| Wu Xing Yang |
| (Guizhou Meteorological Data Center,Guizhou Mountain Meteorological Science Research Institute) |
| Abstract: |
| Under the background of global warming,The precipitation and temperature had occured significant changes in various regions around the world during the past century。The karst landforms in Guizhou are sensitive to climate change in dry and wet。Studying the century long trend of climate change with representative stations in the area is beneficial to predict future climate and address climate risks。This study is based on the anomalies and relative anomalies of temperature and precipitation in Guiyang over the past century compared to the early climate averages and standard deviations (1921-1950),It has revealed that the dry and wet evolution process of the climate in Guiyang during this period compare to the early climate。The results indicate that the temperature shows a significant warming trend,while the precipitation shows an insignificant decreasing trend in Guiyang during 1921 to2023。The climate has become increasingly warm and dry, with warm and dry climates lasting for 64 and 62 years, including 42 years of warm and dry, 22 years of warm and wet, 19 years of cold and wet, and 20 years of cold and dry. The climate of Guiyang experienced a transition from cold and wet (1921-1936) to warm and wet (1937-1953), with both cold and wet coexisting, with cold and dry predominating (1954-1986) and warm and dry predominating (1987-2011). After 2012, the climate shifted towards warm and humid development。Over the past 103 years, the proportion of years with significant temperature deviations reached one-fifth, with nearly one-third experiencing high temperatures and 11 years experiencing low temperatures. There were also 6 years of abnormal warming and 1 year of abnormal cooling. There was no abnormal year occurred in precipitation,The less of precipitation have 6 years including 1936。and with excessive precipitation has only 1954. The climate in autumn and winter is relatively dry and warm, with autumn being particularly prominent. It has been warm for 74 years and dry for 70 years. Summer is the most stable season for the climate in Guiyang, and the trend of temperature and precipitation changes is not significant. Guiyang have to storage sufficient water in summer to cope with extreme dry and warm weather in autumn and winter in the future。 |
| Key words: GuiYang；Climate;Dry and wet evolution |
