| 摘要: |
| 【 目的】统计分析 1921—2022年102 a间各级别雨日及其降水量、年最长连续无降水日数、年最长连续降水日 数及降水量、年最大一日降水量特征值及阶段性变化趋势。【方法】基于贵阳 1921—2022 年的日降水观测数据，应用统计平 均、气候倾向率、趋势系数、累积距平、逐累年平均、Mann-Kendall 检验、Yamamoto 检验等方法，综合分析不同级别雨日及其降 水量的突变、阶段性变化。【结果】近 102 a 间，贵阳年平均降水量1157. 8 mm , 月平均降水量在 21 . 3 ~ 217. 6 mm 之间，6 月平 均降水量接近 1 月的 10 倍，年平均雨日 171 d , 各月平均雨日在 13 ~ 18 d 之间。【结论】贵阳年降水量逐月分布呈现单峰特 征，4 月、10 月降水量随季风进退出现增减阶跃变化；年雨日与年降水量阶段性波动特征明显，1954 年、1985 年分别是年降水 量、年雨日由多到少的变化转折年；贵阳年雨日变化呈增加趋势，冬春季增加，夏秋季减少；降水量呈减少趋势，秋季减少最 多，春季次之，冬夏季无明显变化趋势。小雨雨日增多、中雨降水量减少分别是年雨日增加、年降水量减少的主导因子。未 来，贵阳降水倾向两极变化，小雨降水强度减小，暴雨降水强度增强，冬半年气候有明显干暖化趋势，用水调度和防灾压力增大。 |
| 关键词: 贵阳；雨日；降水量；统计特征；变化 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-06修订日期：2024-07-31 |
| 基金项目:贵州省气象局创新团队（黔气科合 TD〔2024〕01 号）；2021 年山洪项目“信息网络支撑系统之档案数字化系统 ”；贵州省气象局省市联合基金(SS - KF〔2024〕14 号） |
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| Statistical Analysis of Rainy Days and Precipitation in Guiyang in the Past 100 Years |
| WU Xingyang,DU Xiaoling,CHEN Yixuan,LI Dongmei,XU Ping |
| (Guizhou Meteorological Data Center;Guizhou Meteorological Observatory;Guiyang Meteorological Bureau) |
| Abstract: |
| Abstract:Based on the daily precipitation data in Guiyang between 1921 and 2022 , the statistical analysis is conducted to examine various aspects of precipitation , including different levels of rainy days and the precipitation amount , the longest consecutive rainless days , the longest consecutive rainy days and the precipitation amount , as well as the characteristic values of annual maximum daily precipitation and the periodical variation trends over the 102-year period . The methods of statistical averages , climatic tendency rates , trend coefficients , cumulative departures from normal , running annual averages , Mann-Kendall test , and Yamamoto test are applied to analyze the abrupt and stage changes of different levels of rainy days and their precipitation amounts comprehensively. The results show that in the past 102 years , annual average rainfall in Guiyang is 1157. 8 mm , with monthly average rainfall ranging from 21 . 3 mm to 217. 6 mm. The average rainfall in June is almost 10 times that in January. The annual average rainy days are 171 d , with monthly average rainy days ranging from 13 d to 18 d . The monthly distribution of annual rainfall in Guiyang shows a unimodal pattern , with the rainfall in April and October increasing or decreasing in steps with the monsoon ""s advance and retreat. The periodic fluctuations of annual rainy days and annual rainfall are obvious , with 1954 and 1985 being the years of transition from more rainfall to less rainfall . The annual rainy days in Guiyang show an increasing trend . The rainy days in winter and spring tend to increase , but the rainy days in summer and autumn are decreasing. The annual precipitation is decreasing , with the most significant reduction in precipitation in autumn , and then in spring. There is no obvious variation in winter and summer. The increase of light rain days and the decrease of moderate rain precipitation are the main factors for the increase of annual rain days and the decrease of annual precipitation . In the future , the tendency of precipitation in Guiyang would change to the two poles . The intensity of light rain would decrease but that of torrential rains would increase . The climate in the winter half year would have an obvious dry and warm trend , which could bring great pressure for water allocation and disaster prevention . |
| Key words: Guiyang;rainy days;precipitation;statistical characteristics;changes |
