| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为更好的了解贵州省区域降水特点和变化趋势，应对气候变化。【方法】应用旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)方法，将贵州省1963—2022年降雨场划分为4个区域，并分析了各区域降水特征及其变化趋势。【结果】总体上Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区、Ⅳ区呈减少趋势，Ⅲ区呈增加趋势，变化趋势在1989—2014年之间通过P<0.05的显著性检验，其中Ⅳ区变化趋势在1986年有突变；各区均有35 a的主周期变化，其中Ⅰ区未来5 a为下降周期，Ⅱ区未来9 a为下降周期，Ⅲ区和Ⅳ区未来4 a为下降周期。【结论】贵州省降水有明显的年代际变化，Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区相较于Ⅲ区、Ⅳ区出现极端干旱和强降水事件的概率更大，各区年平均降水量均显示出较为明显的周期性变化特征，未来变化有显著的持续性。 |
| 关键词: 贵州降水；旋转经验正交分解（REOF）；空间分布；变化趋势 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-03-31修订日期：2024-07-08 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Precipitation Pattern Recognition and Change Trend Prediction in Guizhou Province Based on REOF Analysis |
| ren qingfeng,Zhang Zhengqiang,Mei Keyuan,Zhao Jinsong,Luo Haishun,Wu Xinhao |
| (Renhuai Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to better understand the characteristics and changing trends of regional precipitation in Guizhou Province and cope with climate change.The rotary empirical orthogonal function decomposition (REOF) method was used to divide the rainfall field in Guizhou Province from 1963 to 2022 into 4 regions, and analyzed the characteristics and changing trends of precipitation in each region. Generally speaking, Area I, Area II, and Area IV showed a decreasing trend, and Area III showed an increasing trend. The change trend passed the significance test of P < 0.05 between 1989 and 2014. The change trend of Area IV had a sudden change in 1986; each area has a 35-year main cycle change, of which Area I will be a downward cycle in the next 5 years, Area II will be a downward cycle in the next 9 years, and Area III and Area IV will be a downward cycle in the future 4 years. Precipitation in Guizhou Province has obvious interdecadal changes. Compared with areas III and IV, areas I and II have a higher probability of extreme drought and heavy precipitation events. The annual average precipitation in each area shows more obvious cyclical changes. The characteristics of future changes have significant sustainability. |
| Key words: Guizhou precipitation; REOF; spatial distribution; changing trend |
