| 摘要: |
| 【目的]：探明威宁县分类强对流环境参数本地指标,为当地强对流天气预报预警工作提供参考。【方法】利用威宁县 2014-2022 年常规地面观测和L波段雷达探空观测等多源气象资料,统计分析冰雹和短时强降水2类强对流天气的环境参数特征,并通过百分位法得出分类强对流的关键环境参数预报指标。【结果】：大气可降水量(PWV),近地面的温度露点差(T-T),近地面到500 hPa 的温差(AT-),对流有效位能(CAPE),0-6km 垂直风切变( VWS”)等环境参数能够区分2类强对流天气。其中,冰雹的预报指标为:PWV>18.6 kg''m”、AT->24 ℃,CAPE>856J·kg”、VWS''>5.7m·s,短时强降水的预报指标为:PWV326.7 kg''m…’,地面T_T ≤4.7 ℃,T-m>22 ℃、CAPE>1 280」·kg”。此外,冰雹的湿球温度0℃高度应为4 311 -5 078 m,短时强降水的暖云层厚度 34 356 m。【结论 通过对2021-2023 年强对流个例的检验冰雹和短时强降水的预报准确率分别为63%,68%,预报指标有一定的指导意义。 |
| 关键词: 强对流；环境参数；分类指标；威宁 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-03-16修订日期：2024-07-23 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Research on Environmental Parameter Indicators of Severe Convective Weather in Weining County |
| lvjing,Zhang Yan,Yu Lv,Yan Ting,Zhang Dan |
| (Weining Meteorological Bureau) |
| Abstract: |
| To explore the loeal indieators of cassilied severe convective ambient parameters in Weining Counband to provide a reference for loeal severe convective weather forecasting and waming, the ambient parametercharacteristies of hail and short-time severer rainfall weather are analyzed based on multi-source meteorological datasuch as conventional ground observations and l,-band radar sounding obserations in Weining County from 2014 to2022. In the meantime, the elassifieation indexes and eriterion of severe conveclion weather are summarized by thepereentile method. The results show that the two types of severe convective weather can be distinguished by ambientparameters such as almospherie precipitable water ( PWV), near-surace temperalure dew point differenee (''TT,), temperature differenee between near-surface and 500 hPa ( AT..-.o ), convective effective potential energy(CAPE) and 0 . 6 km vertical wind shear ( VWs’). Among them, the forecast indicators of hail are: PWV >18.6 kg . m-,T-≥ 24 ℃, CAPE > 856 」. kg '', and VWs''> 5.7 m ''s-''; the forecast indicators olshort-time severe precipitation are: PiV > 26.7 kg " m-’, near.surface (T -T )≤4.7℃ , AT..-.>22 ℃,and CAPE > 1 280 J . kg ''. In addition, the height of the wet bulb of hail at 0 '' layer should be within therange of 4 311 .5 078 m, and the layer thickness of warm clouds with short-time severe rainfall should be greater than or equal to 4,356 m. Verilication of individual cases of severe convection in 2021-2023 suggests that theforeeast aecuracies of hail and short-lime heavy precipitaion are 6396 and 68%% , respeclively. These forecastindicators are instructive for the forecasting of the two types weather. |
| Key words: Severe convection; Environmental parameter;classification indicators; Weining |
