| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为进一步提升暴雨预报预警服务的精细化水平，筑牢气象防灾减灾第一道防线。【方法】利用黔西南州１９９１—２０２３年夏季 ８个国家站逐日降水资料和 ２０１４—２０２３年夏季 １７０个区域站逐日降水资料，采用趋势分析、Ｍａｎｎ-Ｋｅｎｄａｌｌ检验、滑动 Ｔ检验和 Ｍｏｒｌｅｔ小波分析方法，统计分析了黔西南州夏季暴雨日数气候变化特征。【结果】（１）夏季黔西南州区域
站 ６月平均暴雨日数大值区分布在州北部，７月主要出现在兴义，８月分布在册亨大部、安龙东部、兴义南部，５６.２％的夏季暴雨集中在海拔高度 １０００～１５００ｍ之间的地区。（２）黔西南州国家站夏季年平均出现 ２.９ｄ暴雨天气，近 １０ａ黔西南州夏季区域站暴雨总日数为３６０ｄ，共有４６３８站次；夏季平均暴雨日数呈“Ｖ”型分布，６月最多，７月最少；暴雨站次呈逐月递减分布。
（３）夏季发生局地性暴雨比区域性暴雨多，近 １０ａ年最长连续暴雨日为 ８ｄ。（４）夏季国家站暴雨日数未发生突变，暴雨日存在中心值为 １４ａ的长期周期振荡和中心值 ４ａ、１０ａ的较短期周期振荡。（５）夏季国家站总雨量与同期暴雨以上总雨量相关系数为 ０.８３，夏季暴雨对夏季总降水量贡献逐年降低，平均贡献率为２９.２％。【结论】分析得出黔西南州夏季暴雨日数时空分布特征，为更好开展黔西南州暴雨预报预警服务工作提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 夏季暴雨日数；空间分布；气候特征； 小波分析 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-03-01修订日期：2024-07-20 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Climatic characteristics of rainstorm days in summer in Qianxinan prefecture ofsouthwest Guizhou Province |
| yangqian,Zou Changjin,Meng Shihong,Zheng Zhouying,Chen Xingzhao,Yang Chunyan |
| (Meteorological Bureau of Qianxinan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture;Qinglong Meteorological station;Anlong Meteorological station) |
| Abstract: |
| Using the daily precipitation data of 8 national stations in Southwest Guizhou from 1991 to 2023 and 170 regional meteorological observation stations from 2014 to 2023, the climate change characteristics of summer rainstorm days in Southwest Guizhou are analyzed by using statistical methods such as trend analysis, Mann Kendall test, sliding t test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that: (1) The national station in Southwest Guizhou has an average of 2.9 days of rainstorm weather in summer, and the correlation coefficient between the precipitation of the national station in summer and the total precipitation above the rainstorm in the same period is 0.83, and the contribution decreases year by year; The number of rainstorm days has declined since 1993. There are long-term periodic oscillations with a central value of 14 years and short-term periodic oscillations with a central value of 4 years and 10 years; (2) The average number of rainstorm days in summer is distributed in a "V" shape, with the largest number (13 days) in June and the smallest number in July. The number of rainstorm stations is decreasing month by month. The summer rainstorm weather process is the largest in June and has a wider range of influence. The number of rainstorm days in July is small but the range of influence is wider than that in August; (3) Local rainstorm occurs more frequently than regional rainstorm in summer, and the longest continuous rainstorm in recent 10 years is 8 days. (4) The distribution characteristics of rainstorm in each month of summer in Southwest Guizhou from 2014 to 2023 are as follows: the high value area of average rainstorm days in June is located in the north of the prefecture, the high value area of average rainstorm days in July is mainly located in Xingyi, and the high value area of average rainstorm days in August is located in Ceheng, Anlong, and the south of Xingyi; The rainstorm in summer is mainly concentrated in the area between 1000 and 1500m above sea level. |
| Key words: Summer rainstorm days; spatial distribution; climate characteristics; wave analysis |
