| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为探究塔里木河流域夏季降水变化特征及其与海温的关系。【方法】利用新疆气象信息中心提供的1991-2020 年逐日降水量观测数据以及 1979-2021 年 NCEP再分析资料,基于常规气象统计方法,分析塔里木河流域夏季降水的时空变化特征及其相关的海温异常。【结果】1991-2020 年塔里木河流域夏季降水量呈增长趋势,增长速率为5.31%/(10 a),其存在3a的主变化周期,并在 2009 年发生突变。【结论】塔里木河流域夏季降水主要表现为一致变化型和东西反向变化型,前者与前期冬季(或前期春季)印度洋,太平洋中东部及低纬大西洋海温异常有关,后者与前期冬季中低纬太平洋(或前期春季阿拉伯海地区)海温异常有关,均表现出明显的年际变化特征。 |
| 关键词: 塔里木河流域;降水变化;突变检验;小波分析;海温 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-01-20修订日期：2024-06-13 |
| 基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项（2022B03027-1，2022B03027-3）；新疆气象科技创新发展基金指令性（重点）项目（ZD202106） |
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| Variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Tarim River and its relation to sea temperature |
| ZHANG Xin,LOU Junwei,DU Xinheng,WANG Yong,Wang Jin,LIU Yuan-Yuan |
| (Shihezi Meteorological Bureau;Wuyi Meteorological Bureau;Xinjiang Center for Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing) |
| Abstract: |
| To investigate the variation characteristics of summer precipitation and its relationship with seasurface temperature ( SST'') in Tarim River Basin, this paper uses the 1991-2020 daily precipitation observationdata provided by Xinjiang Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP reanalysis data from 1979 to 2021 toanalyze the spatio-temporal variation of summer precipitation and its related SST anomalies in Tarim River Basinbased on the conventional meteorological statistical method. The results show that: ( 1 ) The summer precipitationin Tarim River Basin has an inereasing trend from 1991 to 2020 and the increase rate is 5.31%% per decade. (2)T''he year 2009 is an abrupt year with the inerease of summer precipitation in the basin, but the change is notsignificant. (3 ) The summer precipitation in Tarim River Basin has a period cyele of about 3 years and 6 yearsrespectively , and the main peniod cycle is about 3 years. Summer precipitation in Tarim River Basin mainly has theconsistent variation and the east-west reverse variation, showing obvious inter-annual vanation characteristics. Theuniform type of precipitation distribution is correlated to the SST" anomalies in the lndian 0cean, the central andeastem Pacific Ocean and the low latitude Atlantic 0cean in the previous winter (or previous spring), while theeast-west inverse type is associated with the SS''T anomalies in the middle and low latitude Pacific Ocean ( or the Arabian Sea area in the previous spring) in the previous winter. The composite results of the previous winter SSlanomaly to the summer precipitation anomaly are relatively more significant, having passed the 95%6 significancetest. |
| Key words: Tarim;River Basin, Precipitation;change, Mutation;test, Wavelet;analysis, sea surface temperture（SST） |
