摘要: |
本文为探索静止锋位于遵义上空不同位置时,各城镇精细化预报考核站点当日高温的规律,通过普查2009至2020年12月到次年2月间14时、17时地面天气图,并结合探空资料、卫星云图等资料,筛选出云贵准静止锋(以下简称为静止锋)位于遵义境内时的所有个例,分型统计不同类型个例对应的白天最高温、EC2m温度预报数据,EC细网格850hPa温度,计算不同温度预报方法下的准确率,并分析是否可继续订正。结果表明:(1)离锋面越远,温度的预报准确率越高,基于客观预报方法的可订正性越强,实际业务中可以参考本文分析得到的各站点数据。(2)当静止锋呈Ⅰ1型时,遵义市西部站点用EC预报当日20时的850hPa温度进行预报(以下简称850hPa温度预报方法)准确率较高,北部、东部站点可用EC2m最高温度进行订正(以下简称2m温度订正方法)。(3)当静止锋呈Ⅰ2型时,可以同时参考850hPa温度预报方法和2m温度订正方法,订正后准确率高。(4)当静止锋为Ⅱ2型时,对于离锋面较远的东部、南部可着重使用2m温度订正方法。 |
关键词: 云贵准静止锋;EC2m温度订正;温度预报 |
DOI: |
投稿时间:2023-02-09修订日期:2023-09-04 |
基金项目:遵市科合支撑GY(2021)63号:基于雷达的遵义市暴雨监测预警平台建设 |
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The influence of a quasi-stationary front in northern Qianjiang in winter A study of the revised method for forecasting local maximum temperatures |
luochenyi |
(Zunyi Meteorological Observatory) |
Abstract: |
In order to explore the pattern of daily high temperature at the fine forecast assessment stations in each town when the stationary front is located at different positions over Zunyi, the ground weather maps at 1400 and 1700 hours from December 2009 to February 2020 were surveyed, and combined with sounding data and satellite cloud maps, all cases of quasi-stationary fronts (hereinafter referred to as stationary fronts) in Zunyi were screened out, and different types of The accuracy of different temperature forecasting methods was calculated and analysed for further revisions. The results show that: (1) the further away from the front, the higher the accuracy of the temperature forecast, the stronger the revisability based on objective forecasting methods, and the actual operation can refer to the data obtained from the analysis of each station in this paper. (2) When the stationary front is of type Ⅰ1, the 850hPa temperature at 20:00 on the day of the EC forecast (hereinafter referred to as the 850hPa temperature forecast method) is more accurate for the western stations in Zunyi, while the EC2m maximum temperature can be revised for the northern and eastern stations (hereinafter referred to as the 2m temperature revision method). (3) When the stationary front is of type Ⅰ2, the 850hPa temperature forecast method and the 2m temperature revision method can be referred to at the same time, with high accuracy after revision. (4) When the stationary front is type Ⅱ2, the 2m temperature revision method can be used for the eastern and southern parts of the front which are farther away from the surface. |
Key words: Quasi-stationary fronts in Yunnan and Guizhou; EC2m temperature revisions; temperature forecasts |