| 摘要: |
| 为推算昌北机场不同重现期的极端气温，选取永修国家气象站作为参证气象站，通过建立机场站与永修站年极端气温回归模型，构建机场站长年代年极端气温序列，再利用极值Ⅰ型分布和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布对参证站（永修站）实测序列和机场站构建序列进行拟合和拟合效果检验，结果表明：两种模型对相同重现期的温度拟合结果不一致，差异在0.1～1.1 ℃；对年极端最高气温的拟合，两个序列均以皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布的效果更好，对年极端最低气温的拟合，均以极值Ⅰ型分布的效果更好。以皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布拟合参证站实测年极端最高气温序列的结果作为昌北机场不同重现期年极端最高气温的推算值，极值Ⅰ型分布拟合机场站构建年极端最低气温序列的结果作为昌北机场不同重现期年极端最低气温的推算值。昌北机场10、30、50和100a重现期的年极端最高气温分别是39.6、40.5、40.9和41.4 ℃，年极端最低气温分别是-9.5、-12.0、-13.1和-14.6 ℃。 |
| 关键词: 昌北机场;重现期;极端气温 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2023-01-06修订日期：2023-03-31 |
| 基金项目:江西省重点研发计划项目(20202BBGL73063)精细化气象评估技术在赣江新区工业布局与规划中的应用研究。 |
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| Estimation of Extreme Temperature for Different Recurrence Intervals of Nanchang Changbei Airport |
| WEN Xinlong,XU Weimin,SHEN Jin |
| (Meteorological Science Institute of Jiangxi Province) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to calculate the extreme temperature of Changbei Airport in different return periods, Yongxiu National Meteorological Station is selected as the reference meteorological station. By establishing the annual extreme temperature regression model of the airport station and Yongxiu Station, the annual extreme temperature series of the airport station is constructed. Then, the extreme value I distribution and Pearson III distribution are used to test the fitting and fitting effect of the measured series of the reference station (Yongxiu Station) and the constructed series of the airport station, The results show that the fitting results of the two models for the same return period are not consistent, with the difference between 0.1 and 1.1 ℃; For the fitting of annual extreme maximum temperature, the Pearson III distribution is better for the two series, and the extreme I distribution is better for the fitting of annual extreme minimum temperature. The results of Pearson type III distribution fitting the observed annual extreme maximum temperature series at the reference station are used as the estimated values of the annual extreme maximum temperature in different return periods at Changbei Airport, and the results of extreme value type I distribution fitting the annual extreme minimum temperature series constructed by the airport station are used as the estimated values of the annual extreme minimum temperature in different return periods at Changbei Airport. The annual extreme maximum temperature of Changbei Airport in the return period of 10, 30, 50 and 100 years is 39.6, 40.5, 40.9 and 41.4 ℃ respectively, and the annual extreme minimum temperature is - 9.5, - 12.0, - 13.1 and - 14.6 ℃ respectively. |
| Key words: Changbei Airport; recurrence interval; extreme temperature |
