| 摘要: |
| 通过对1951—2020年罗甸县逐日降水观测资料、2010—2020年罗甸县各乡镇逐日降水观测资料的统计分析，计算出要素保证率80%的值，采用线性趋势分析、等值线分布、Mann-Kendal检验、Morlet小波方法分析罗甸县境内暴雨的时空分布特征。结果表明：近70 a罗甸县年暴雨日数、近11 a罗甸县各乡镇总年暴雨日数均缓慢增多，区域暴雨次数逐渐减少，在年际变化中，均存在显著的3 a左右周期振荡。暴雨集中发生在5—9月，近70 a占全年暴雨日数91%，各月暴雨日数时空分布差异显著，暴雨发生最多月份为6月，近70 a平均每年1.3 d，占全年暴雨日数的36%。各乡镇年平均暴雨日数分布区域性特征明显，存在2个多值区（西北部、东南部）和1个少值区（西南部）。暴雨多发生在夜间，尤其大暴雨以上量级降水在夜间发生的概率高达93%。降水强度等级从北向南逐级减小，与罗甸县略呈“撮箕口”朝南地形较一致，从西北、北、东北向南逐级减小，在西部、东北部存在较稳定的2个极端暴雨中心。各乡镇连续暴雨次数分布差异明显，呈北多南少分布。总体而言，西部在年暴雨日数、暴雨强度、连续暴雨次数及连续降水量均居全县首位，在天气预报、防汛工作中应重点关注和防范。 |
| 关键词: 罗甸县；暴雨；时空分布；特征分析 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2021-09-07 |
| 基金项目:贵州省气象局科研业务项目（黔气科登[2020]04-09号）：罗甸县暴雨预测指标及模式构建研究 |
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| Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Rainstorm in Luodian County |
| LIU Chaoying,TAN Qingbo,ZOU Yingjie,YANG Fengna |
| (Luodian Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province,Luodian 550100 ,China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the statistical analysis of daily precipitation observation data from 1951 to 2020 in Luodian County and daily precipitation observation data from 2010 to 2020 in each township in Luodian County, the factor guarantee rate of 80% was calculated. Linear trend analysis, isoline distribution, Mann-Kendal test and Morlet wavelet method were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm in Luodian County. The results show that the annual number of rainstorm days in Luodian County in the past 70 years and the total number of rainstorm days in each township in Luodian County in the past 11 years have slowly increased, and the number of regional torrential rains has gradually decreased. In the interannual variation, there is a significant 3-year cycle oscillation. Heavy rain occurred mainly from May to September, accounting for 91% of the number of rainstorm days in the past 70 years, and the spatial and temporal distribution of the number of rainstorm days in each month is significantly different. The month with the most rainstorm occurs in June, with an average of 1.3 d per year in the past 70 years, accounting for 36% of the number of rainstorm days in the year. The regional distribution of the annual average number of rainstorm days in each township is obvious. There are two high-value areas (northwest and southeast) and one low-value area (southwest). Heavy rains mostly occur at night, especially with 93% probability of occurrence of precipitation of the magnitude above heavy rainstorms at night. The precipitation intensity level decreases gradually from north to south, which is consistent with Luodian Countys slightly "Zuojikou" southward-facing terrain, it gradually decreases from northwest, north, and northeast to south, and there are two relatively stable extreme rainstorm centers in the west and northeast. The distribution of the number of consecutive rainstorms in each township is obviously different, with more in the north and less in the south. In general, the western region ranks first in the county in the number of days of rainstorms, the intensity of rainstorms, the number of consecutive rainstorms and the amount of continuous precipitation, which should be paid attention to and precautions in weather forecasting and flood control work. |
| Key words: Luodian County； rainstorm； temporal and spatial distribution； characteristic analysis |
