| 摘要: |
| 利用贵州2017年实况高温、低温以及降水数据对GRAPES_MESO区域中尺度模式预报的温度与降水产品进行检验，结果表明：该模式对贵州高温预报能力较差，对低温预报能力较好，误差在2℃以内且预报稳定性较高，该模式在小雨预报方面有一定优势，对暴雨及以上降水预报能力较差。从贵州不同区域检验结果来看，该模式在温度预报上为安顺市最好、铜仁市最差，在降水预报上为遵义市最好、黔西南州最差。检验分析结果为进一步改进GRAPES_MESO区域中尺度模式，提高要素预报准确率提供一定依据。 |
| 关键词: GRAPES_MESO区域中尺度模式;温度预报;降水预报;模式误差;检验评估 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2019-12-18修订日期：2020-05-19 |
| 基金项目:贵州复杂地形下GRAPES_MESO区域中尺度模式地面要素预报的检验评估（编号“黔气科登「2020」03-05号”） |
|
| Verification and Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Prediction in Guizhou Province by GRAPES_MESO Model |
| yuanchen,XieQingxia,LiuYanhua,LiLi,GuTianhong |
| (Meteorological Observator of Guizhou Province) |
| Abstract: |
| The temperature and precipitation prediction by GRAPES_MESO model are verified and assessed by statistical method in 2017.Results show that ：GRAPES_MESO model shows poor ability for prediction of highest temperature . GRAPES_MESO model has obviously better predicting superiority in the Prediction of lowest temperature according to the error within 2℃ and high prediction stability. GRAPES_MESO model has some advantage in the Prediction of light rain，but shows poor ability for forcasting heavy rain. The Verification and Evaluation of 9 cities in Guizhou Province show that the temperature prediction has an outstanding performance in Anshun but performs worse in Tongren. Results also show that the precipitation prediction has an outstanding performance in Zunyi but performs worse in Qianxinan. Verification results in this paper provide some bases to optimize the model and to improve the accuracy of prediction. |
| Key words: GRAPES_MESO Model;temperature prediction ;precipitation prediction; error of model; verification and evaluation |
