| 摘要: |
| 采用贵州省84个国家级气象观测站1961-2017年逐日降水量,根据拟定的强降水过程判断条件,对区域性强降水过程进行识别,选取气候标准期每次过程的持续天数、总雨量、总站次、暴雨量、暴雨站次5个指标,并进行正态化和标准化处理。采用主成分分析方法确定各指标权重,得到贵州省区域性强降水过程的综合强度评估模型,并进行等级划分。结果显示,综合强度评估值与历史强降水事件具有较好的一致性,为强降水定量评估提供了一定的科学依据和基础。 |
| 关键词: 区域性强降水,主成分分析,综合强度评估指数 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2018-12-18修订日期：2019-01-29 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Preliminary study on the assessment method of regional heavy precipitation process in Guizhou province |
| LONG Li,DUAN Ying,MOU Jia,ZHANG Donghai,XU Dandan |
| (Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang;Guizhou Ecological meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center,Guiyang;Guizhou Meteorological Society,Guiyang) |
| Abstract: |
| Using the daily precipitation from 1961 to 2017 of 84 national meteorological observation stations in Guizhou Province, the regional heavy precipitation process was identified according to the conditions for judging the heavy precipitation process. Five indexes of Number of days, total rainfall, total station, rainstorm, and station of rainstorm were selected for each process of climate standard period, then normal and standardized processing. The weights of each index were determined by principal component analysis method, and the comprehensive strength evaluation model of regional heavy precipitation process in Guizhou Province was obtained, and grade it. The results show that the comprehensive strength evaluation is consistent with the historical heavy precipitation event, which provides a scientific basis and foundation for the quantitative assessment of heavy precipitation. |
| Key words: regional;heavy precipitation, principal;component analysis, comprehensive;strength evaluation;index |
