| 摘要: |
| 摘要：为了解果洛决策气象服务现状和科学、准确评价，保障气象服务供给能力,结合本地实情开展了满意度、期望度问卷调查并进行效益评价；本文利用层析分析法（AHP法）和波士顿矩阵（BCG矩阵）相结合的方法，构建了果洛决策气象服务效益评价体系；结果显示：果洛决策气象服务项目结构合理，产品内容丰富，服务及时，具有很大的优势，但用户满意度很低，原因是预报准确率不高、提前量不多、科技支撑不够和地域限制明显等；今后当以这些差距为重点不断提升服务质量，积极为当地环境保护、气候资源合理开发利用和防灾减灾等方面做出贡献。 |
| 关键词: 效益评估;决策气象服务;层次分析法;波士顿矩阵法 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2018-06-12修订日期：2019-01-04 |
| 基金项目: |
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| The benefit evaluation of decision meteorological services based on AHP/BCG in guoluo |
| JIA Xu-zhi |
| (The Meteorological Bureau of Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture 814000) |
| Abstract: |
| Abstract: In order to understand the current situation and scientific and accurate evaluation of decision meteorological services in Guoluo, and to ensure the supply capacity of meteorological services, a questionnaire survey of satisfaction and expectation was carried out and the benefit evaluation by carried out according to the local conditions.by combining the method of AHP and the Boston matrix (BCG matrix), the system of evaluating the benefit of decision weather service is constructed. The results show that the decision meteorological services are reasonable in structure, abundant in product content, timely in service, and have great advantages, but the user satisfaction is very low, The reason is that the low prediction accuracy, less forecast advance of forecast, less technological support and geographical constraints are obvious, et. we should focus on these gaps to continuously improve the service quality with these gaps In the future, and contribute to the local disaster prevention and reduction, the rational exploitation and utilization of climate resources and environmental protection. |
| Key words: benefit evaluation; Decision meteorological services; analytic hierarchy process(AHP); Boston consulting group matrix(BCG) |
