| 摘要: |
| 利用NCEP再分析资料、ECWMF预报风场和历史降水量资料，分别采用前人提出的相似量和本文改进的相似量进行动力相似选择试验。结果表明：改进后的相似量的相似选择效果最好。对于南充2012年7月4日区域大暴雨过程，用改进相似量筛选出与此次过程最相似的历史个例，进行对比分析后，发现最相似个例风场与预报风场在形状、强度和影响系统空间配置都很相似，降水实况接近。表明最相似个例的风场和降水资料对该次大暴雨过程的降水量级、落区预报有较高的参考和指示意义。 |
| 关键词: 大暴雨;动力相似;形状;相似量 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2018-01-02修订日期：2018-03-18 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Application of Dynamic Similarity Method in A Heavy Rainstorm Process |
| fushijun |
| (Nanchong Meteorological Bureau) |
| Abstract: |
| By using NCEP reanalysis data, forecast wind field data of ECWMF and historical precipitation data, the similar measures proposed by predecessors and the improved similar measures in this paper are adopted to carry out dynamic analogue tests. The results show that the effect of the improved similarity measure is the best.In the regional rainstorm of Nanchong on July 4, 2012, the most similar historical example is selected with the improved similarity. After comparison and analysis, it is found that the wind field of historical example and the forecast wind field are similar in shape, intensity and weather system spatial configuration, and the precipitation is close to each other. It is indicated that the wind field and precipitation data of this?historical?example?have high reference and indicating significance to the precipitation level and falling area forecast of the rainstorm. |
| Key words: heavy rainstorm; dynamic?similarity; shape; similarity measure |
