| 摘要: |
| 【 目的】为探究近 40 a 贵州省 0 cm 地温的时空变化特征。【方法】利用 1984—2023 年贵州省 81 个国家气象站 的日平均 0 cm 地温资料，采用回归分析、Mann-Kendall 非参数统计检验及 Pettitt 检验等方法，对近 40 a 贵州省 0 cm 地温的时 空变化特征进行分析。【结果】(1) 贵州省年和四季平均地温总体呈上升趋势，且年及春、夏、秋三季呈显著上升趋势( P < 0. 01) , 地温的空间分布呈南高北低，东高西低，夏季地温高值区主要位于贵州省东部和南部边缘地区，年和春、秋、冬三季地 温的高值区主要位于贵州省南部边缘地区。(2)贵州省年及四季平均地温均出现了上升突变，其中年及春、夏两季地温集中 在 21 世纪头 10 a 发生突变，秋季地温在 1997 年发生突变，突变后升温幅度更加显著，地温突变前后升温幅度为春季 ＞秋季 > 夏季 ＞年＞冬季。(3) 地温倾向率呈现春季[0 . 54 ℃ · ( 10 a) - 1 ] > 秋季[0 . 41 ℃ · ( 10 a) - 1 ] > 夏季[0 . 27 ℃ · ( 10 a) - 1 ] > 冬季[0 . 23 ℃ · (10 a) - 1 ]的规律，其空间分布表现为“西高东低 ”的特征，年及四季均有 90% 以上的站点地温倾向率 大于 0 , 且除夏季和冬季以外，年及春、秋两季地温倾向率有 85% 以上的站点通过 P < 0 . 05 的显著性检验。【结论】在全球气 候变暖的背景下，贵州省年和四季平均地温总体呈现全区一致性显著上升趋势，且均出现了上升突变。 |
| 关键词: 地温；Mann-Kendall 非参数统计检验；Pettitt 检验；贵州省 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-06-05修订日期：2024-09-09 |
| 基金项目:贵州省气象局科研业务项目（黔气科登〔2024〕03 - 04) |
|
| Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of 0 cm Ground Temperature in Guizhou Province from 1984 to 2023 |
| FANG Peng,ZENG Ni,GOU Yang,LIU Siyang,WANG Ranxi,DENG An |
| (Anshun Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province;Anshun Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province;Qiannan Bouyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province) |
| Abstract: |
| To explore the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of 0 cm ground temperature in Guizhou Province over the past 40 years , based on the daily average 0 cm ground temperature data of 81 national meteorological stations in Guizhou from 1984 to 2023 , this article analyzes the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of 0 cm ground temperature in Guizhou province in the past 40 years by using regression analysis , Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test and Pettitt test. The results show that : ( 1 ) The average ground temperature in Guizhou has an overall upward trend in both the whole year and four seasons , and it is especially significant in the whole year , spring , summer and autumn ( P < 0 . 01 ) . The spatial distribution of ground temperature is " high in the south and low in the north , high in the east and low in the west " . The high-value areas of ground temperature in summer are mainly located in the eastern and southern edge areas of Guizhou Province , while such areas in the whole year , spring , autumn and winter are mainly in the southern edge areas of Guizhou Province . (2) The average ground temperature in Guizhou Province has shown a sudden rise in both the whole year and four seasons , in which the abrupt changes of the ground temperature in the whole year , spring and summer were concentrated in the early 2000s , and the autumn ground temperature experienced a sudden change in 1997 . After the abrupt change , the warming amplitude became more significant. The warming amplitude before and after the abrupt change was in the order of spring > autumn > summer > the whole year > winter. (3 ) The trends of ground temperature inclination rate show a pattern of spring (0 . 54 ℃ · decade - 1 ) > Autumn (0 . 41 ℃ · decade - 1 ) > summer (0 . 27 ℃ · decade - 1 ) > winter (0 . 23 ℃ · decade - 1 ) , with a spatial distribution characterized by " high in the west and low in the east " . More than 90% of the stations have a ground temperature inclination rate greater than 0 throughout the whole year and four seasons . Moreover , except in summer and winter , more than 85% of the stations have passed the significance test of P < 0 . 05 . Finally , under the background of global warming , the annual and seasonal mean ground temperatures show a consistent and significant upward trend in Guizhou Province , and they all have experienced abrupt upward changes . |
| Key words: ground temperature; Mann-Kendall non parametric statistical test; Pettitt test; Guizhou Province |
