| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为检验CMA-WSP风速预报订正产品在贵州风电场中的预报可靠性，对未来72h风速预报产品进行检验评估。【方法】利用贵州乌江源风电场2023年9月1日—12月31日12台标杆风力发电机组实测风速数据进行研究。【结果】结果表明：（1）预报风速与实测风速变化趋势基本一致，预报风速整体上比实测风速偏小，逐15min和1h未来24h预报风速与实测风速相关系数分别为0.745和0.754，随着预报时效的延长，预报风速与实际风速的偏差增大，准确率逐渐降低。（2）风速订正算法对于平均风速的预报能力比极值预报能力略好。（3）从日分布情况看，在凌晨2：00到下午17：00之间，预报平均风速均小于实测平均风速，其余时段则相反；预报平均风速与实测平均风速在上午8:00到下午12：00之间为相差最大时段。（4）6个独立厂区未来24h的准确率均比整体风电场低，而百草坪厂区和祖安山厂区未来48h和72h的准确率确比整体风电场高。【结论】总体而言，CMA-WSP风速预报订正产品在贵州风电场预报效果较好，下一步可利用更长时间序列的资料深入研究。 |
| 关键词: CMA-WSP；预报风速；贵州；风电场；检验评估 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-09修订日期：2024-07-31 |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Validation and Assessment of the CMA-WSP Wind Speed Forecast Correction Product at Guizhou Wind Farms |
| taoyong,wangjiaming,chenguo,wuchanghang,yeyin,chenyiyi |
| (.Guizhou Institute of Mountain Meteorological Seienee;Guizhou New Meteorological Technology Co.，Ltd.;Guizhou Meteorological Bureau Service Center;Guizhou Meteorological Observatory;Baiyun District Meteorological Bureau of Guiyang City;Guizhou Sub-Bureau of Southwest Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC) |
| Abstract: |
| To assess the forecast reliability of the CMA-WSP wind speed forecast product at wind farms in Guizhou, an evaluation was conducted on the 72-hour wind speed forecast product. The study utilized actual wind speed data from 12 benchmark wind turbines at the Wujiangyuan Wind Farm in Guizhou from September 1, 2023, to December 31, 2023. The results indicate that: (1) The wind speed forecast product generally aligns with the trends of actual wind speeds, although the forecasted speeds are overall lower than the measured ones. The [第一作者简介：陶勇，工程师，主要从事专业气象服务研究，E-mail：18798879432@163.com
资助项目：中国华电集团有限公司2023年科技项目与技术标准计划（第一批）“气象赋能光伏电站安全、高效预警预测技术研究及应用”(CHDKJ23-02-40)
通讯作者：陈义义，工程师，航空气象预报保障与技术研究，E-mail：243748677@qq.com]correlation coefficients for the forecasted wind speeds 15 minutes and 1 hour ahead are 0.745 and 0.754, respectively. As the forecast horizon extends, the discrepancy between the forecasted and actual wind speeds increases, and the accuracy gradually decreases. (2) The wind speed correction algorithm performs slightly better in forecasting average wind speeds than in forecasting extreme values. (3) In terms of daily distribution, the forecasted average wind speeds are lower than the measured average wind speeds between 2:00 AM and 5:00 PM, and higher during the other periods; the largest difference between the forecasted and measured average wind speeds occurs from 8:00 AM to 12:00 AM. (4) The accuracy of the 24-hour forecasts for six independent plant areas is generally lower than that of the overall wind farm, while the accuracy of the 48-hour and 72-hour forecasts for the Baicaoping and Zu"anshan plant areas is higher than that of the overall wind farm. Overall, the CMA-WSP wind speed forecast correction product performs well in the wind farms of Guizhou, and further in-depth studies can be conducted using data from a longer time series. |
| Key words: Key words:CMA-WSP;forecast wind speed;Guizhou;wind farm;validation and Assessment |
