| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析铜仁市植被NPP时空演变及驱动因素，可为当地生态环境治理措施的制定提供参考依据。【方法】采用遥感影像、气象和土地利用等数据，结合变异系数、赫斯特指数、相关性分析和地理探测器等方法，分析2000—2022年铜仁市植被NPP时空演变及未来变化趋势，并探讨气候变化影响及主要驱动因素。【结果】近23a铜仁市植被NPP整体呈波动上升趋势和明显的空间分异性，均值为752.78gC·m-2·a-1，整体上呈现西高东低。铜仁市植被NPP呈增长趋势且非常稳定，增长面积占比为85.44%，变异系数均值为0.08；未来变化趋势主要呈弱反持续特征，面积占比为81.33%。铜仁市植被NPP与气温、降水均呈正相关关系（通过0.05信度检验），其中气温是影响植被NPP的主要气候因素。自然因素对植被NPP的影响大于人为因素，其中气温、高程和降水是铜仁市植被NPP的主导驱动因素，降水和人口、GDP、高程的交互作用最强。【结论】铜仁市植被NPP总体处于良好水平且上升趋势，但未来发展趋势不容乐观，应综合考虑气候、地形和人类活动等因素，统筹推进生态环境保护和社会经济发展。 |
| 关键词: 铜仁市；植被NPP；时空演变；气候变化；地理探测器 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-04-25修订日期：2024-06-17 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Vegetation NPP and its Driving Factors in Tongren |
| RAN Hongling,HE Bo,LONG Hechun,YANG Qun,RAN Guangjing,XU Dahong |
| (Tongren Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province;Yuping Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to provide reference for the formulation of local ecological and environmental management measures, the temporal evolution and driving factors of vegetation NPP in Tongren City from 2000 to 2022 were discussed through Coefficient of Variation, Hurst exponent, correlation analysis and GeoDetector. The results indicate that over the last 23 years, vegetation NPP in Tongren has displayed a fluctuating upward trend with clear spatial variations—higher in the west and lower in the east, averaging 752.78 gC·m-2·a-1. Predominantly, the area showed a steady increase in vegetation NPP, constituting 85.44% with an average coefficient of variation of 0.08. Future trends suggest predominantly weak anti-persistence, covering 81.33% of the area. In Tongren, vegetation NPP is positively correlated with temperature and precipitation (through 0.05 confidence test), with temperature as the primary climatic driver. Natural factors, particularly temperature, elevation, and precipitation, play a more significant role than human factors in influencing vegetation NPP. Among these, precipitation demonstrates the strongest interaction with population, GDP, and elevation. In conclusion, while vegetation NPP in Tongren is generally positive and on the rise, the anticipated future trend appears less favorable. Comprehensive consideration of climate, topography, and human activities is essential for enhancing ecological protection and advancing economic development. |
| Key words: Tongren; vegetation NPP; temporal and spatial evolution; climatic variation; GeoDetector |
