| 摘要: |
| 【目的】烟炉（也称地面燃烧发生器）作为一种新型人工增雨技术因高安全性、操作便利得到广泛推广应用，但在云贵高原山地区域布设相对较少，其适用性和增雨效果相关研究不多。【方法】本文通过高斯扩散模型和区域历史回归分析等方法，统计研究了普洱市域内烟炉站点的增雨适用性以及2019 -2021年烟炉增雨作业效果。【结果】（1）普洱市烟炉点布设满足适用性要求，烟炉增雨作业具有可行性；（2）雷达回波特征参量对增雨作业效果有明显正反馈，且回波生命期长于历史对比回波；就层积混合云而言，其作业后雷达回波最大组合反射率（CRmax）、强中心高度（Hc）、回波顶高（ET）等较历史值都有显著增长，尤其平均垂直累积液态水类增长50%左右，其效果明显优于层云和积云增雨；（3）烟炉作业点的海拔高度和云底高度是影响烟炉增雨作业成功与否的关键因素，当作业点海拔较低或云底高度较高时，增雨作业失败率高；此外，有利的降水天气系统背景和大气物理环境也是作业成功的重要影响因素；（4）层积混合云成功案例的相对增雨率为20.5%，通过95%的双边T检验，总体样本相对增雨率15.8%，显著性较低。【结论】此次统计分析成果为烟炉增雨作业站点布设和增雨效果检验评估提供一定的科学参考依据。 |
| 关键词: 人工增雨;烟炉;效果检验评估 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2023-07-10修订日期：2024-04-07 |
| 基金项目:云南省气象局自筹项目（YZ202120）；普洱市气象局气象科技创新项目（PZ202310） |
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| Statistical Analysis of Cloud-seeding Effect of Ground Burners in Pu er city |
| GAO ZhengNan,WANG XiaoJun,WANG Fei,YAO ZiWei,DUAN Wei |
| (Meteorological Bureau of Pu''er city,Pu''er;Meteorological Science Institute of Yunnan Province) |
| Abstract: |
| In recent years, ground burners as new artificial precipitation enhancement technology has been widely promoted and applied due to their high safety and convenient operation, but they are still rarely deployed in the mountainous areas of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and there are not many studies on their applicability and rainfall enhancement effects. In this paper, the applicability of ground burners in Pu"er City and the effect of ground burners stove rain enhancement from 2019 to 2021 were statistically studied by means of Gaussian diffusion model and regional historical regression analysis. The results show that: (1) the layout of ground burners in Pu"er City meets the applicability requirements, and the ground burners rain enhancement operation is feasible. (2) the radar echo characteristic parameters have obvious positive feedback on the effect of rain enhancement operation, and the echo lifetime is longer than that of historical comparison echoes; for stratographic mixed clouds, the maximum combined reflectivity (CRmax), strong center height (Hc) and echo top height (ET) of radar echoes after operation have increased significantly compared with the historical values, especially the average vertical cumulative liquid water increases by 50%. (3) The altitude and cloud base height of the ground burners operation point are the key factors affecting the success of the ground burners rain enhancement operation, and the failure rate of the rain enhancement operation is high when the altitude of the operation point is low or the cloud base height is high; in addition, the favorable precipitation weather system background and atmospheric physical environment are also important factors influencing the success of the operation. (4) The relative precipitation enhancement rate of the successful case of stratiform mixed cloud is 20.5%, and the relative precipitation enhancement rate of the overall sample is 15.8% through the bilateral T-test of 95% , with low significance. The results of this statistical analysis provide a certain scientific basis for the layout of ground burners rain enhancement operation sites and the inspection and evaluation of rain enhancement effect. |
| Key words: Artificial precipitation enhancement;Ground burners;Effect test evaluation |
