| 摘要: |
| 摘 要：【目的】基于铜仁市10个国家级台站1991-2020年的逐日降水资料，分析了铜仁日雨量、连续降水量、连续降水日数3个降水评价指标的稳定性，给出降水灾害的最优预警阈值。【方法】计算GB/T 33669-2017排序法、水文排序法、10倍年数取值排序法3种算法的极端降水指标阈值，并对3个降水评价指标致灾风险进行分析讨论。【结果】（1）根据GB/T 33669-2017排序法得出的铜仁极端降水指标阈值明显大于该区域自然资源的承受能力，分年提取样本会漏掉许多重要信息。（2）根据水文排序法得出的极端降水指标阈值总体优于国标排序法，但仍有重要信息遗漏。（3）10倍年数排序法得出的极端降水指标阈值，既与自然资源承载能力较为匹配，又能避免了重要信息遗漏。【结论】铜仁1日最大降水量、连续降水日数和连续降水量年际间变化大，稳定度差，国标法或每年等量样本入选排序法漏掉的重要信息多，不适合用于本市致灾阈值的计算。用10倍年数基本资料排序法得出的极端降水阈值，既可以保证重要信息入选，又与自然资源承载能力较为匹配，还与前人的研究最为接近，可以优先推荐为铜仁降水监测指标的灾害预警阈值。 |
| 关键词: 极端降水;排序方法;降水监测指标;风险预警;阈值 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-29修订日期：2024-02-20 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Preliminary on Extreme precipitation warning threshold method based on extreme precipitation ranking method in Tongren |
| XiE Renbo,He Lihong,Dai Ruihua,Fu Qing |
| (Yinjiang Meteorological Bureau;Tongren Meteorological Bureau) |
| Abstract: |
| Abstract:Based on the daily precipitation data of 10 national stations from 1991 to 2020 in Tongren City, the stability of three precipitation evaluation indexes, namely daily precipitation, continuous precipitation and continuous precipitation days, was analyzed, and the optimal early-warning threshold of precipitation disasters was given.【Methods】The extreme precipitation index thresholds of GB/T 33669-2017 ranking method, hydrological ranking method and 10 times annual value ranking method were calculated, and the disaster risk caused by the three precipitation evaluation indexes was analyzed and discussed.【Results】(1) According to GB/T 33669-2017 ranking method, the threshold value of extreme precipitation index of Tongren was significantly greater than the bearing capacity of natural resources in the region, and many important information would be missed if samples were extracted by different years. (2) The extreme precipitation index threshold obtained according to the hydrological ranking method is generally better than the national standard ranking method, but there are still important information missing. (3) The extreme precipitation index threshold obtained by the 10-fold annual ranking method not only matches the carrying capacity of natural resources, but also avoids the omission of important information.The 1-day maximum precipitation, the number of continuous precipitation days and continuous precipitation in Tongren vary greatly from year to year, and the stability is poor. The national standard method or the annual equivalent sample value ranking method misses a lot of important information, which is not suitable for the calculation of disaster threshold in Tongren. The extreme precipitation threshold obtained by using the basic data sequencing method of 10 times the number of years can not only ensure the inclusion of important information, but also match the carrying capacity of natural resources, and is the closest to previous studies, so it can be recommended as the disaster early warning threshold of Tongren precipitation monitoring index. |
| Key words: Extreme precipitation; Sorting method; Precipitation monitoring index; Risk early warning; Threshold value |
