摘要: |
全球城市化进程正在不断快速推进,城市洪涝灾害灾害频繁发生,成为世界各国、特别是中国等发展中国家普遍面临的城市问题,分析洪涝现象的时间演变规律和发展趋势,对于采取科学的政策措施有效防治洪涝灾害具有重要的参考价值。基于贵阳市1961-2020年的逐日气象数据,利用SPEI指数、Mann-Kendall检验方法和小波变换,分析了近60年多尺度时序下的洪涝变化规律。结果表明: ①贵阳市月度和季节降水强度大,暴雨发生频次高,月度降水强度集中在大雨及以上,季节性降水强度集中在暴雨及以上,易发生极端降水事件,造成城市洪涝灾害;②多时间尺度下,SPEI值对于降水、气温等气象因素的响应敏感程度不一,日尺度敏感程度最强,其他尺度趋于平缓,同时,大尺度对应的洪涝事件占比逐渐减少。③贵阳市发生洪涝的年份占总年份的21.67%,SPEI-12呈上升趋势, SPEI-3突变发生在19世纪60年代,突变后呈上升趋势且秋冬两季上升趋势显著,说明季节性洪涝有增强趋势; ④SPEI-1的周期变化特征为:在33个月主周期条件下的周期是23个月;在14个月主周期条件下的周期是9个月。 |
关键词: SPEI;多尺度时间序列;洪涝;贵阳市 |
DOI: |
投稿时间:2022-11-10修订日期:2023-04-27 |
基金项目:贵州省科学技术基金项目(黔科合基础[2017]1409) |
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Multi-scale time series analysis of flood disaster in guiyang city from 1981 to 2020 |
zhaoyuhan,Yin Changying,Dai Li,Xu Dandan,Zhou Fang,Zhang Ping |
(College of Geography and Environmental Science, Guizhou Normal University;School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guizhou Institute of Technology;Guizhou Meteorological Society) |
Abstract: |
The global urbanization process is advancing rapidly, and urban flood disasters occur frequently, which has become a common urban problem faced by all countries in the world, especially China and other developing countries. Analyzing the time evolution law and development trend of flood phenomena has important reference value for taking scientific policy measures to effectively prevent and control flood disasters. Based on the daily meteorological data of Guiyang from 1961 to 2020, using SPEI index, Mann Kendall test method and wavelet transform, this paper analyzes the flood and waterlogging change rule under multi-scale time series in recent 60 years. The results show that: ① The monthly and seasonal precipitation intensity in Guiyang is high, the frequency of rainstorm is high, the monthly precipitation intensity is concentrated in the heavy rain and above, and the seasonal precipitation intensity is concentrated in the heavy rain and above, so extreme precipitation events are easy to occur, causing urban flood disasters; ② At multiple time scales, SPEI values have different sensitivity to precipitation, temperature and other meteorological factors. The sensitivity of daily scale is the strongest, while that of other scales tends to be flat. At the same time, the proportion of flood events corresponding to large scales gradually decreases. ③ The year of flood in Guiyang City accounts for 21.67% of the total year. SPEI-12 shows an upward trend. The mutation of SPEI-3 occurred in the 1960s. After the mutation, it shows an upward trend and a significant upward trend in autumn and winter, indicating that seasonal flood has an enhanced trend; ④ The cycle change characteristics of SPEI-1 are as follows: the cycle is 23 months under the condition of 33 month main cycle; The period under the condition of 14 month main period is 9 months. |
Key words: SPEI;Multi scale time series;flood and water-logging;Guiyang City |