| 摘要: |
| 选取威宁县1985年至2020年气象资料和黑颈鹤物候观测资料，采用数理统计、Ｍ-Ｋ突变检验等方法对各气候因子的趋势变化倾向率、主要气候因子对黑颈鹤物候期的影响进行研究。根据气象要素对黑颈鹤物候期的响应模式进行逐步回归结果表明：黑颈鹤的初见期、间隔期、终见期在1985-1990年间变化幅度较大。总体而言，近35年来初见期总体变化趋于平稳，终见期呈现上升趋势，说明黑颈鹤在威宁的停留时间有缩短趋势、终见期有提前的趋势。8月平均气温每升高1℃，黑颈鹤的初见期将推后4.485天；11月的平均风速每增加1m/s间隔期将会延长16.128天；3月雨日每增加1天，终见期将会推后1.863天，间隔期延长1.482天；1月平均风速每增加1m/s，终见期将会推后8.929天。说明气候变化对黑颈鹤物候期有积极的影响，比较敏感?可为气候变化的提供一定的指示作用。 |
| 关键词: 黑颈鹤、初见期、间隔期、终见期、物候期、气候资料 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2022-05-13修订日期：2022-12-08 |
| 基金项目:草海湿地黑颈鹤迁徙特性与气候变化响应关系研究 |
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| Study on the relationship between the migration characteristics of black necked cranes and the response to climate change in Caohai wetland |
| zhangyan,caitong,keliping,yulv,tushenglei |
| (Weining County Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province;Guizhou Caohai National Nature Reserve Management Committee) |
| Abstract: |
| the selection of weining map from 1985 to 2020 phenological observation data, meteorological data and black-necked cranes adopting mutation testing methods such as mathematical statistics, the M - K of each factor to the trend of climate change trend rate, the influence of the main climate factor the phenophase of black-necked cranes were studied. According to the meteorological elements for black-necked cranes phenophase response model for the stepwise regression results show that the stage of black-necked cranes produced, interval, end in large variations in between 1985 and 1990. In general, the first phase of the overall change leveled off in recent 35 years, eventually rise see period, explain the black-necked crane in weining trend of residence time is shortened, end see period has a tendency to ahead of time. Higher average temperature in August every 1 ℃, black-necked cranes in the first phase will be delayed 4.485 days; The average wind speed in November every increase 1 m/s intervals will increase 16.128 days; Increases by + 1 every day, rain days in March will see period will be delayed 1.863 days, extended interval 1.482 days; 1 month every increase 1 m/s, average wind speed will see period will be delayed 8.929 days. Illustrate the phenophase of black-necked cranes have a positive impact on climate change, more sensitive ? can provide certain instruction function for climate change. |
| Key words: Black necked Crane, initial stage, interval, final stage, phenology, climate data |
