| 摘要: |
| 贵州能源资源丰富，随着“碳达峰、碳中和”目标推进，以风力发电和光伏发电为主的新能源建设和发电占比近年来增长迅速，结合气象要素对新能源进行功率预测是气象服务切入以新能源为主导的新型电力系统建设发展的重要主题。贵州地理环境特殊，新能源设施建设布局和影响其运行的天气气候因素也较复杂。本文根据调查研究，结合我省新能源建设运营情况，首先针对国内和贵州省气象部门服务新能源功率预测的相关观测、预报、服务、管理的能力与不足进行了探讨，并进一步探究市场需求与现有支撑的衔接和困境。以及针对市场环境的变化，对气象业务能力和体系如何高效适配未来以新能源为主的电力市场的需求和发展提出了一些设想和建议。 |
| 关键词: 新能源，功率预测, 气象服务 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2022-01-19修订日期：2022-05-09 |
| 基金项目:中国气象局公共气象服务中心2021年度创新基金项目“复杂地形气候背景下的贵州新能源应用需求调查和挖掘研究（M2021014）”支持；2021年度泛珠三角科技创新开放基金“基于高分辨率数值天气预报产品开展云贵高原东侧典型区域光伏发电功率预报的应用研究（FZSJ202107）”支持 |
|
| Discussion on the application of Guizhou meteorological service system in the prediction of new energy power |
| Tang Tianran,Yang Lin,Zhou Mingfei,Yuan Chen,Li Gang,Wu Changhang |
| (Guizhou Meteorological Observatory) |
| Abstract: |
| Guizhou is rich in energy resources. With the promotion of the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutralization", the proportion of new energy construction and power generation dominated by wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation has increased rapidly in recent years. Power prediction of new energy in combination with meteorological factors is an important theme for meteorological services to cut into the construction and development of new power system dominated by new energy. The special geographical characteristics of Guizhou lead to the complex construction layout of new energy facilities and the weather and climate factors affecting their operation. According to the investigation and research, combined with the construction and operation of new energy in our province, this paper first discusses the relevant observation, prediction, service and management capabilities and deficiencies of domestic and Guizhou meteorological departments in serving new energy power prediction, and further explores the connection and dilemma between market demand and existing support. According to the innovation of the market environment, this paper puts forward some ideas and suggestions on how to efficiently adapt the meteorological business capacity and system to the demand and development of the power market dominated by new energy in the future. |
| Key words: new energy，power prediction，meteorology services |
