| 摘要: |
| 利用威宁站逐日地面降雪观测资料和L波段雷达每天08时、20时的探空资料，采用数理统计方法，分析2008—2019年探空各规定标准等压面温度、湿度和风向风速的分布特征，找出其降雪预报指标，建立降雪预报模型。结果表明：①威宁降雪天气主要与中低层的湿度及其风向风速、近地面~500 hPa的温度关系密切；②降雪预报模型主要包含湿度指标（H近地面≥80%、H700≥80%、H600≥60%）、温度指标（T近地面≤0.5 ℃、T700≤-1.2 ℃、T600≤-4.8 ℃、T500≤-8.2 ℃）和风向风速指标（V近地面≤5 m·s-1、V600≥17 m·s-1）3个方面，随着高度的增加，风速增大，南北风切变明显；当湿度、温度指标同时满足时，直接判断将有降雪天气出现，不再进行风向风速指标的判别；③预报模型对2020年冬季(12月、1月、2月)降雪进行检验，其预报准确率达70%，预报可靠性高，对威宁降雪预报具有较强的指导性。 |
| 关键词: 降雪预报；L波段雷达；探空物理量；威宁 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2021-08-11 |
| 基金项目:毕节市气象局科研业务项目（BJKD[2021]06-01号）：L波段雷达秒数据在威宁降雪预报中的应用研究 |
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| Preliminary Study on Snow Weather Forecast Model in Weining Based on L-band Radar Data |
| LYU Jing,CAI Tong,YU Lyu,ZHANG Yan,KE Liping |
| (Weining Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Weining 553100 ,China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the daily ground snow observation data from Weining Station and the second sounding data of L-band radar at 08∶00 and 20∶00 located in the same place, the snowfall prediction indicators of the distribution characteristics of temperature, humidity, wind direction and wind speed of sounding standard isobaric surface from 2008 to 2019 are analyzed by using mathematical statistics method. Then we build a snow forecast model. The results show that: ①The snowy weather in Weining is mainly related to the humidity and wind direction and speed of the middle and low layers, and the temperature near the ground~500 hPa; ②The snowfall forecast model mainly includes the humidity index (Hearth≥80%,H700≥80%、H600≥60%)、the temperature index（Tearth≤0.5 ℃,T700≤ -1.2 ℃,T600≤ -4.8 ℃,T500≤-8.2 ℃)、the wind direction and wind speed index （Vearth≤5 m·s-1, V600≥17 m·s-1）, as the altitude increases, the wind speed increases, and the north-south wind shear becomes obvious; When the humidity and temperature indicators are met at the same time, it is directly judged that there will be snowy weather, and the wind direction and wind speed indicators are no longer judged.③The forecast model is used to test the snowfall in winter (December, January and February) of 2020. The prediction accuracy is 70%, and the prediction reliability is high. It has strong guidance for snowfall prediction in Weining. |
| Key words: snow forecast；L-band radar； sounding physical quantity； Weining |
