| 摘要: |
| 在全球气候变暖的背景下，我国极端天气增多，气象灾害频发，造成了人员伤亡和重大经济损失。该文以贵州大龙经济开发区为例，利用开发区周边玉屏、新晃国家气象观测站资料，对极端气温、极端强降水和极值风速进行分析。采用Pearson-Ⅲ和Gumbel分布函数等方法，拟合计算极值气温和不同时段强降水百年一遇设计值，不同设计频率、不同高度极值风速设计值。结果表明：大龙开发区区域内最高气温百年一遇设计值为42.7 ℃，最低气温百年一遇设计值为-10.9 ℃；1 d、3 d、5 d、10 d最大降水量百年一遇设计值分别为248.0 mm、261.8 mm、300.8 mm、327.7 mm；离地10 m高度百年一遇最大风速为26.7 m·s-1，百年一遇极大风速为42.7 m·s-1。模拟得到的百年一遇气象参数设计值，为开发区企业工程项目设计提供科学参考，以期规避或降低极端气候事件可能对安全生产造成的风险。 |
| 关键词: 极端气象参数；重现期；设计值 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2022-06-16 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Research on Extreme Meteorological Parameters in Dalong Economic Development Zone in Guizhou |
| LI Xiao,SHUAI Shizhang,ZHANG Donghai,ZHU Jun |
| (Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| Under the global warming background, increasing extreme weather events and associated frequent disasters cause casualties and heavy economic losses in China. Based on station data from Yuping and Xinhuang, this study analyzed extreme temperature, extreme heavy precipitation and extreme wind in Dalong Economic Development Zone in Guizhou. Pearson-III, Gumbel distributions and other functions are used to fit and calculate the extreme temperature, the design value of heavy precipitation in different time periods at 100-year return period, and the design value of extreme wind speed at different design frequencies and altitudes. The results indicate that the design value of the maximum temperature at 100-year return period is 42.7 ℃ in Dalong Development Zone. The design value of the minimal temperature at 100-year return period is -10.9 ℃. The design values are 248.0 mm, 261.8 mm, 300.8 mm, and 327.7 mm for maximum precipitation in one day, three days, five days and ten days respectively. The maximum wind speed that occurs at 100-year return period at 10 meters above the ground is 26.7 m·s-1. The maximum wind speed that occurs at 100-year return period is 42.7 m·s-1. Design values at 100-year return period in this study can provide scientific and safe solutions for enterprises in the development zone, which can avoid and reduce the risk that extreme weather events causing to the safe production. |
| Key words: extreme meteorological parameters； return period； design value |
