| 摘要: |
| 通过近30 a逐日降水资料对印江、江口、松桃3县降水稳定性分析得出：①汛期降水的主要集中在5—7月；②汛期雨量在年际间表现不够稳定，雨涝年的汛期雨量是干旱年的2倍多；③按滑动10 d计算集中期，松桃降水集中期主要是6月1—10日、6月22日—7月1日、7月10—19日；江口县降水集中期主要是6月29日—7月8日、6月1—10日、6月15—24日；印江降水集中期主要是6月18—27日、6月1—10日、7月15—24日。年际间降水集中期不稳定，需要常年做出预测。④印江、江口、松桃4月和10月有暴雨灾害出现，宜将当地的汛期定为4—10月。对长历时降水分析得出：①汛情的严重程度与4 d以内的长历时降水有较好的正相关，研究时长4 d以内的最大累积降水能反映汛情的基本情况；②依据经验频率，统计24 h、48 h、72 h和96 h共4个时长10 a 1遇、5 a 1遇、3 a 1遇的雨量情况，认为在无新增佐证的情况下，宜将3 a 1遇的降水量确定为长历时降水致灾风险阈值。 |
| 关键词: 汛期；长历时降水；风险阈值；三个叫应 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2021-06-22 |
| 基金项目: |
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| A Preliminary Study on the Risk Threshold of Precipitation Concentration Period and Long Duration Precipitation in Yinjiang, Jiangkou and Songtao |
| XIE Renbo,DENG Su,JIAN Xin,LI Lingyun,REN Ke |
| (Yinjiang Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Yinjiang 555200 , China;Jiangkou Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Jiangkou 554400 ,China) |
| Abstract: |
| The precipitation stability in Yinjiang, Jiangkou and Songtao counties in recent 30 years was analyzed, and it is concluded that: ① the precipitation in flood season is mainly concentrated in May to July; ② The rainfall in flood season is not stable between years. The rainfall in flood season in wet year is more than twice that in dry year. ③ According to the sliding 10 days, the precipitation concentration period in Songtao is mainly from June 1 to 10, from June 22 to July 1, and July 10 to July 19. The precipitation concentrated period in Jiangkou is from June 29 to July 8, June 1 to 10, and June 15 to 24. The precipitation concentration period of Yinjiang River is mainly from June 18 to 27, June 1 to 10, and July 15 to July 24. The inter-annual precipitation concentration period is unstable, which requires perennial prediction.④ There are heavy rain disasters in Yinjiang, Jiangkou and Songtao in April and October, so it is advisable to set the local flood season as April to October. The analysis of long duration precipitation shows that :① the severity of flood situation is positively correlated with the long duration precipitation within 4 days, and the maximum cumulative precipitation within 4 days can reflect the basic situation of flood situation; ② according to the empirical frequency, the rainfall conditions of 24 h, 48 h, 72 h and 96 h in a total of 4 periods of 1 in 10 years, 1 in 5 years and 1 in 3 years are statistically analyzed. It is suggested that in the case of no new evidence, the precipitation that occurs once every three years should be determined as the disaster threshold of long duration precipitation. |
| Key words: flood season； long duration precipitation； risk threshold； three call-responses |
