| 摘要: |
该文利用2005—2019年毕节市8个国家站的暴雨天气过程发生前24 h地面露点温度资料，采用露点法对大气可降水量（PWV）进行反算，探究其与暴雨天气中雨强的关系，建立暴雨预报阈值指标，利用2020年23次暴雨天气过程对阈值指标的可行性进行CSI评分检验。结果表明：①大气可降水量变化呈现单峰型特征，其主要降水过程与PWV峰值有很好对应关系，短时强降水出现前后每一次水汽的激增均对应1次降水过程和最大降水强度的出现。②从CSI评分检验的结果来看，毕节各站暴雨阈值指标准确率达90%以上，空报率小于10%，本地化暴雨阈值指标具有一定的可行性。总体上，通过地面露点法建立的阈值指标对毕节市的暴雨预报有较好的指示作用，未来应加强大气可降水量对暴雨预报的研究力度，不断完善本地化暴雨预报指标。 |
| 关键词: 大气可降水量；暴雨；露点温度；特征分析 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2021-05-19 |
| 基金项目:贵州省气象局科研业务项目（黔气科登[2020]03-02号）：大气可降水量在毕节暴雨预报中的应用研究 |
|
| Study on the Relationship between Atmospheric Precipitable Amount and Heavy Rain in Bijie Area |
| YANG Yang,KE Liping,NIE Xiang,ZHANG Chenggang,ZHANG Zongdi,SHI Qianwen |
| (Zhijin Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Zhijin 552100 , China;Weining Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Weining 553100 , China;Bijie Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Bijie 551700 , China;Dafang Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Dafang 551600 , China;Jinsha Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Jinsha 551800 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| Using the ground dew point temperature data of the eight national stations in Bijie City from 2005 to 2019 before the occurrence of the rainstorm weather processes, the dew point method was used to back calculate the atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) to explore its relationship with rain intensity in rainstorm weather, establish a rainstorm forecast threshold index, and the 23 rainstorm weather processes in 2020 were used to test the feasibility of the threshold index by CSI score test. The results show that: ①The change of atmospheric precipitable amount presents a single-peak characteristic, and its main precipitation process has a good corresponding relationship with the peak value of PWV. When short-term heavy precipitation occurs, each surge of water vapor corresponds to the presence of a precipitation process and a maximum precipitation intensity. ②According to the results of the CSI scoring test, the accuracy rate of the rainstorm threshold index at each station in Bijie is more than 90%, and the empty report rate is less than 10%. The localized rainstorm threshold index has certain feasibility. In general, the threshold index established by the ground dew point method has a good indicator effect on the rainstorm forecast in Bijie City. In the future, the research strength of the atmospheric precipitation on the rainstorm forecast should be strengthened, and the localized rainstorm forecast index should be continuously improved. |
| Key words: precipitable water vapor； heavy rain； dew point temperature； characteristic analysis |
