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贵州夜间降水特征与暴雨预警发布现状分析
潘岑,罗俊才,苏静文,冀丹妮,牛迪宇,蔡露进
0
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(贵州省气象服务中心,贵州 贵阳 550002)
摘要:
基于贵州1961—2019年81个站点逐日20—20时、20—次日08时降水数据,分析贵州省59 a的夜间降水、夜间暴雨时空分布特征和地域变化M-K趋势,总结近4a夜间暴雨预警信号发布现状。结果显示:①贵州省夜雨和夜间暴雨现象显著。夜雨率均值高达62%,5—9月夜间暴雨集中,约占全年的84%,6月为高发期。省西南部降水总量高,夜雨比例高,夜间暴雨比重高,是防灾减灾预警服务中的重点关注区域。②近59 a全省整体上夜间降水量减少,但夜间暴雨出现愈加频繁。未来需多关注遵义(道真、桐梓、湄潭)、黔东南和毕节中、西部地区逐渐增加的夜间降水,增强夜间暴雨监测及服务能力。③贵州省暴雨预警信号发布集中在21时—次日04时,22时发布量最大,致灾严重的大暴雨预警(红色级别)信号82%以上出现在夜间(20—次日08时),服务压力很大,完善预警发布机制有利于推进预警信号服务。因此,较之白天,需更加重视贵州山区的夜间暴雨监测、预警。
关键词:  贵州;夜间降水;夜间暴雨;M-K检验;暴雨预警
DOI:
投稿时间:2020-11-09
基金项目:贵州省气象局青年基金项目(黔气科登[2020] 11-01号):贵州夜间降水特征与暴雨预警发布现状研究
Analysis of the Nocturnal Precipitation Characteristics and the Current  Situation of Rainstorm Warning Signals Release in Guizhou Province
PAN Cen,LUO Juncai,SU Jingwen,JI Danni,NIU Diyu,CAI Lujin
(Guizhou Meteorological Service Center, Guiyang 550002 , China)
Abstract:
Based on daily precipitation data at 20-20 o'clock and 20-08 o'clock of 81 observational stations in Guizhou pProvince from 1961 to 2019, the temporal-spatial characteristics of nocturnal precipitation and nighttime rainstorm in recent 59 years are analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test. And the paper makes the conclusion on current situation analysis of nighttime rainstorm warning signals service of Guizhou. Results show:① The nocturnal rainfall and nighttime rainstorm occur frequently in Guizhou, up to 62 percent of precipitation fallings during the night. Nighttime rainstorm cluster together from May to September, sharing accounting 84 percent of the whole year especially in June and happen frequently in June. The southwestern part of Guizhou is the superimposed area of precipitation, which taking the big risk from high quantity of precipitation, high ratio of nocturnal precipitation and high proportion of nighttime rainstorm.② The amount of nighttime rainstorm and the number of nighttime rainstorm days increase obviously, but the quantity of nocturnal precipitation decreases, mean that severe weather will become more frequent. There are increasing trend of nighttime rainstorm in Zunyi (Daozhen, Tongzi, Meitan), Qiandongnan, and the central and western regions of Bijie, where need to strengthen the monitoring and improve warning service capabilities of nighttime rainstorm.③ In Guizhou, rainstorm warning signals occurs mainly from 21 o'clock to 04 o'clock and reaches the top at 22 o'clock. More than 82% of the severe rainstorm warning (red level) signals appear at night (20-08 o'clock), which creates a lot of pressure on warning information services. A sound warning issuing mechanism is conductive to promoting warning service. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the nighttime rainstorm monitoring and warning of nighttime rainstorm in the mountainous areas of Guizhou than the daytime.
Key words:  Guizhou;nighttime precipitation;nighttime rainstorm;Mann-Kendall Inspection;rainstorm warning signal
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