| 摘要: |
| 该文选取2015—2017年贵州西南3地（黔西南、安顺、六盘水）的环境空气质量监测和气象要素观测资料，运用统计、相关和多元线性逐步回归3种分析方法，掌握了3地环境空气质量指数和污染物特征，以前日空气质量指数近似替代未知污染源和显著相关气象因子作为自变量，对3地分季节建立空气质量指数预报模型，并进行了效果检验。结果表明：贵州省西南3地空气质量优良，黔西南州空气质量最优，安顺市次之；3地AQI月均值6月最低，安顺市、六盘水市和黔西南州最高分别出现在12、1和2月；优、良等级年际变化安顺市分别呈波峰和波谷特征，六盘水市与其反向变化，黔西南州为线性正、负变化；安顺市、六盘水市和黔西南州主要污染物分别为O3、PM2.5和PM10；3地AQI模型预报值与实况的变化趋势较为一致，春、夏季效果最好，综合评分在90%以上，具有预报业务应用价值。 |
| 关键词: 贵州西南三地；空气质量指数；预报；多元线性逐步回归 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2020-06-09 |
| 基金项目:贵州省科技支撑计划项目（黔科合支撑[2018]2779）：贵州空气质量及空气污染气象条件预报技术研究 |
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| Study on the Air Quality Characteristics and Forecast of Three Places in Southwest Guizhou |
| WANG Ranxi,SONG Dan |
| (Anshun Meteorological Bureau, Anshun 561000 , China;The Meteorological Service Center of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550002 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| The environmental air quality monitoring and meteorological element observation data of three places in southwest Guizhou from 2015 to 2017 were selected. Three analysis methods: statistics, correlation and multiple stepwise regression were used to grasp the environmental air quality index and pollutant characteristics of the three places, using the previous daily air quality index to approximately replace unknown pollution sources and significant related meteorological factors as independent variables, the air quality index forecast model was established for the three regions by season, and the effect was tested. The results show that the air quality of the three places in southwest Guizhou Province is good, the air quality of Qianxinan is the best, and Anshun is the second; the monthly average AQI of the three places is the lowest in June, and the maximum of air quality index in Anshun, Liupanshui and Qianxinan appears in December, January and February respectively; The annual variation of first and second rate in Anshun separately displays with “wave crest” and “wave trough” ,and Liupanshui changed in the opposite direction, Qianxinan showed linear positive and negative changes; Anshun, Liupanshui and Qianxinan mainly The forecast value of the AQI model of the three places are more consistent with the change trend of the actual situation. The effect is the best in spring and summer, and the comprehensive score is above 90%, which has the value of forecasting professional application. |
| Key words: three places in southwest Guizhou；air quality index；forecast；multiple linear stepwise regressions |
