| 摘要: |
| 为了研究气象要素对雪梨始花期的影响，并对雪梨始花期做出准确预报，利用2008—2017年金川县雪梨始花期物候资料和地面气象观测资料，对影响雪梨始花期的气象因子进行分析。结果显示：气温影响显著，日照次之，降水微弱；气温对雪梨始花期显著影响时段主要体现在冬末2月，2月平均气温≥10 ℃的天数和2月下旬平均气温对雪梨始花期早晚起主导作用，2月≥10 ℃的天数越多，2月下旬平均气温越高，雪梨始花期越早，反之相对较晚。应用SPSS软件，采用逐步回归分析法建立了雪梨始花期预测模型，模型拟合效果较好。所建模型预报准确率能满足业务要求，及时为政府和旅游部门提供准确的始花期预报。 |
| 关键词: 雪梨；始花期；气象因子；预报模型 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2020-03-18 |
| 基金项目:四川省阿坝州气象局2019年课题（2019-5）：金川县雪梨始花期预报模型研究 |
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| The Prediction Model Research of Snow Pear's Early Flowering Season in Jinchuan |
| ZHU Haiyun,CHEN Zhili |
| (Aba Meteorological Bureau, Sichuan Province,Aba 624000 , China;Jinchuan Meteorological Bureau,Jinchuan 624100 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to study the effect of meteorological elements on the beginning flowering period of snow pear, and the beginning flowering period of snow pear was predicted accurately，the phenological data and ground meteorological observation data of snow pear flowering period in Jinchuan county from 2008 to 2017 were used to analyze the meteorological factors affecting snow pear flowering period.The results show that the influence of temperature was significant, followed by sunshine and weak precipitation.The significant influence of temperature on the beginning flowering period of snow pear is mainly reflected in the late winter and February. The days with the average temperature ≥10 ℃ in February and the average temperature in late February play a leading role in the beginning flowering period of snow pear. The more days with the average temperature ≥10 ℃ in February, the higher the average temperature in late February and the earlier the beginning flowering period of snow pear, and vice versa.Using SPSS software and stepwise regression analysis method, the prediction model of snow pear initial flowering period was established. The forecast accuracy of the model can meet the business requirements and provide the accurate forecast of flowering time for the government and the tourism department. |
| Key words: snow pear；beginning of flowering；meteorological factors；prediction model |
