| 摘要: |
| 利用2016—2018年遵义国家气象站（57713）观测资料，分析晴天、阴雨、多云、雷雨等天气条件下的实况最高、最低温度与EC细网格850 hPa 20时温度预报格点值的温差，统计出各种天气条件下的温度高、低差值。结果表明：通过将欧洲数值预报产品与本地天气相结合，统计得出本地的温度变化的订正值，能够较为准确地制作24~120 h的最高、最低温度预报；预报初始值24~48 h温度误差相对较小，预报越正确，随着时效的增长，数值预报初始值准确率逐渐下降，误差增大，从而导致预报准确率也逐渐下降。从近3 a的业务应用效果来看，遵义本地化最高、最低温度预报成绩排名在全省前列，因此该模型的预报方法可明显的提高温度预报准确率。 |
| 关键词: 最高温度；最低温度；差值；天气现象 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2020-02-04 |
| 基金项目:黔气科登【2020】07-01号：遵义市温度预报模型研究 |
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| Zunyi Temperature Forecast Model Based on European Numerical Forecast Products |
| XIE Gang,ZOU Chengli,TANG Hai,LI Xia,TIAN Duan |
| (Zunyi Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Zunyi 563000 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the observation data of Zunyi National Meteorological Station (57713) from 2016 to 2018, the temperature difference between the actual maximum and minimum temperatures under the weather conditions of sunny, cloudy, cloudy, thunderstorm and other weather conditions and the grid point value of the temperature forecast of EC fine grid at 850 hPa 20 hours were analyzed and the differences between high and low temperature under various weather conditions were calculated. The results show that: by combining European numerical forecast products with local weather, the corrected values of local temperature changes can be obtained by statistics, and the maximum and minimum temperature forecasts of 24 h to 120 h can be made relatively accurately; the initial value of the forecast error from 24 to 48 h is relatively small, the forecast is relatively accurate, as the timeliness increases, the accuracy of the initial value of the numerical forecast gradually decreases, and the error increases, resulting in the gradual decline of the forecast accuracy; From the perspective of the business application effect in the past three years, Zunyi localization has the highest and lowest temperature forecast results ranking in the forefront of the province, indicating the forecast method of this model significantly improved the accuracy of temperature forecast. |
| Key words: highest temperature； lowest temperature； difference； weather phenomenons |
