| 摘要: |
| 贵州是典型喀斯特地貌发育区，生态环境脆弱，农业干旱灾害频发，开展农业干旱灾害危险性评价与区划研究，可为贵州农业防旱减灾工作提供科学指导。该文从气候、地形、水资源、土壤环境、地表覆盖性质等方面选择了气象干旱综合指数（MCI）为致灾因子，坡度坡向、水源邻近度、土壤粘粒含量为孕灾环境因子、土地利用类型、植被覆盖（NDVI）为承载体脆弱性因子，采用层次层析法、熵权法结合确定权重，在GIS平台上实现了多个时间节点的农业干旱灾害危险性评价与区划，并分析了39 a以来的干旱灾害危险性格局形成过程。研究表明：①贵州省农业干旱灾害危险性指数为0.36，总体属于中度危险等级；②低危险区、次低危险区、中度危险区、次高危险区、高危险区面积依次占总面积的15.05%、27.22%、27.55%、20.91%、9.27%，次高及以上危险等级区集中分布在贵州省遵义市北部、毕节市大部、黔西南州南部及其与安顺市、黔南州交接周围地区；③1981—2019年，贵州农业干旱灾害危险性格局由起初的东部—北部较高危险区逐渐向西向南演变成西北—西南—北部农业干旱灾害较高危险区分布格局。总体上，西部、南部的农业干旱灾害危险性有明显增强趋势，未来贵州应该加强西部、南部的防旱抗旱工作。 |
| 关键词: 农业干旱灾害危险性；致灾因子；孕灾环境因子；承灾体脆弱性；贵州省 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2020-06-22 |
| 基金项目:黔气科登（[2020]04-12）：贵州省农业干旱灾害危险性格局构建及其时空演变过程研究 |
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| The Dangerousness Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Guizhou Province Based on GIS |
| ZHU Jun,SHUAI Shizhang,WANG Xing,LI Jinne,DING Liguo,TIAN Pengju |
| (The Climate Center of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550002 , China;The Metorological Information Center of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550002 , China;Guizhou Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center,Guiyang 550002 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| Guizhou is a typical karst landform development area, with fragile ecological environment and frequent agricultural drought disasters. The dangerousness assessment and regionalization of agricultural drought disasters are carried out, which is necessary to provide scientific guidance for agricultural drought prevention and disaster resistance in Guizhou. The weather drought comprehensive index (MCI) was selected as the disaster-causing factor, the slope, aspect, water source proximity and soil clay content are selected as the disaster-inducing environmental factor, and land use type and vegetation cover (NDVI) are selected as the frangibility factors from the aspects of climate, topography, water resources ,soil and covering properties of the Earth's surface to realize the dangerousness assessment and regionalization of agricultural drought disaster in several time nodes by using the method of AHP and entropy weight on GIS platform, and the process of formation of dangerousness pattern of drought disaster in the past 39 years was analyzed. The results show that: ①the dangerousness index of agricultural drought disaster in Guizhou Province is 0.36, which belongs to moderate dangerousness Grade; ②the areas of low-dangerousness region, sub-low-dangerousness region, medium-dangerousness region, sub-high-dangerousness region, high-dangerousness region accounted for 15.05% , 27.22% , 27.55%, 20.91%, and 9.27% of the total area respectively in turn, the high and above dangerousness zones are concentrated in the northern part of Zunyi, Bijie, Qianxinan Buyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture and the areas around the border with Anshun and Qiannan Buyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture. ③from 1981 to 2019, the dangerousness pattern of agricultural drought disaster in Guizhou gradually changed from the east-north higher dangerousness area to the west-south distribution pattern of northwest-southwest-north higher dangerousness area. On the whole, the dangerousness of agricultural drought disaster in the West and south of Guizhou has an obvious increasing trend. In the future, the work of drought control and drought resistance in western and southern regions in Guizhou should be strengthened. |
| Key words: dangerousness of agricultural drought disaster；disaster-causing factor；environmental factor；frangibility factors；Guizhou Province |
