| 摘要: |
| 该文探讨了贵州区域性低温阴雨过程的识别方法和综合强度评估模型的构建方法。利用85个国家级气象观测站1971—2018年11月—次年4月逐日最高气温、最低气温、20—20时降水量及日照资料，首先在给定区域性低温阴雨过程识别方法的基础上，筛选出248次区域性低温阴雨过程；其次选取低温强度、覆盖范围、持续时间3项作为低温阴雨过程指标，并对低温强度和覆盖范围指标进行了正态化转换，对持续时间指标进行了Γ分布拟合，然后利用正态和Γ分布的反函数确定其数年一遇的概率，将反函数所对应的数值作为等级划分标准；最后运用客观分析法确定3个指标的权重，建立了贵州低温阴雨过程综合评估模型，并将综合强度划分为4个等级。应用此模型对历史重大事件进行了试评估，结果表明，该模型评估效果较好，可以在实际业务中应用。 |
| 关键词: 低温阴雨；gamma(Γ)分布；重现期；评估模型 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2020-04-16 |
| 基金项目: |
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| A Quantitative Method for Assessment of Low Temperature Overcast and Rain Process in Guizhou Province |
| SHI Yan,ZHANG Donghai,ZHOU Yongshui,WANG Yu,SONG Guoqiang,TONG Biqing |
| (Guizhou Meteorological Observatory,Guiyang 550002 ,China;Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang 550002 ,China) |
| Abstract: |
| The identification method of regional low temperature overcast and rain process in Guizhou and the construction method of comprehensive intensity evaluation model are discussed. Based on the data of daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine from 1971 to 2018 from 85 national meteorological stations, 248 regional low temperature and rain processes were screened out on the basis of the given method for identifying regional low temperature and rain processes. Secondly, the intensity, coverage and duration of cold air are selected as the three indexes of cold rain process, and each index is normalized or distributed. Then, the probability of once in a few years is determined by the inverse function of the corresponding distribution probability density function, and the comprehensive evaluation model of low temperature and overcast rain process in Guizhou is established by using the weight analysis method. The comprehensive strength is divided into 4 grades. The sub-model is used to evaluate the important events in history. The result shows that the model is effective and can be applied in the actual business. |
| Key words: low temperature and rain weather； gamma(Γ)distribution； return period； assessment model |
