摘要: |
基于美国国家环境预报中心提供的CFSv2未来45 d的气候模式产品资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日资料和贵州省85个地面气象观测站的逐日降水资料,评估了CFSv2延伸期时段降水量预报产品对贵州省2019年6月5—9日区域暴雨过程的预报能力。结果表明,CFSv2在提前15~10 d时段对贵州区域暴雨过程的预报能力较好,对6月8日最大降水日的预报信号稳定、持续。通过500 hPa环流形势的预报场与实况场的对比分析,发现影响暴雨过程预报量级偏小的原因主要在于西太平洋副热带高压预报的强度偏小、位置偏南。 |
关键词: CFSv2;延伸期预报;预测 |
DOI: |
投稿时间:2019-10-22 |
基金项目: |
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Analysis of CFSv2 model prediction capability of a regional rainstorm process in Guizhou |
LI Lang,BAI Hui,WU Zhanping,FANG Di,YU Fei,PENG Fang |
(Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate,Guiyang 550002 , China ;Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources,Guiyang 550002 , China) |
Abstract: |
Based on the CFSv2 climate model product information for the next 45 days provided by the US National Environmental Forecast Center、NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of daily data and daily precipitation data of 85 ground meteorological observatories in Guizhou Province, The forecasting ability of the precipitation forecast product of CFSv2 in the extended period to the regional rainstorm process from June 5 to 9, 2019 in Guizhou Province was evaluated. the result shows, CFSv2 has better forecasting ability for the rainstorm process in Guizhou during the 15~10 d period, The forecast signal for the biggest precipitation day on June 8 is stable and continuous. By comparative analysis of forecast field and the live field of 500 hPa circulation situation, It is found that the main reason for the small prediction magnitude of rainstorm process is the small prediction intensity of subtropical high in the Western Pacific Ocean. |
Key words: CFSv2;extended-range forecast;forecast |