| 摘要: |
| 为对ECMWF全球数值模式和华南中尺度数值模式能见度产品在复杂地形区域的预报性能进行客观描述，该文通过定义低能见度天气过程，提取2016年10月—2017年2月贵州省山区典型的低能见度天气过程作为检验样本，开展两种数值预报模式的能见度预报能力检验。分析发现：在能见度等级的预报性能方面，辐射雾过程的预报准确率明显低于锋面雾过程，且华南中尺度模式明显差于ECMWF模式，预报正确的等级集中在高能见度区间；在分等级检验中发现两种模式对雾的预报技巧均偏低，其中轻雾的预报技巧较高，尤其是ECMWF模式对锋面雾过程中轻雾的预报有一定参考性，但两种模式对辐射雾的预报能力不足尤为明显；ECMWF模式在锋面雾过程中，对贵州西部高原出现雾的预报能力较强，在东部对轻雾的预报有参考性，但各预报场对贵州中部地区雾的预报效果都不好。 |
| 关键词: 低能见度；数值模式；预报性能；检验 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2019-10-16 |
| 基金项目:贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑[2017]2812)：高速公路大雾预报预警技术研究；中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2017-067）：贵州秋冬季典型低能见度过程特征及客观预报性能分析；贵州省气象服务中心山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程2020年建设项目 |
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| Study on the prediction performance of two kinds of numerical forecast visibility products in complex terrain |
| TANG Yanjing,XIA Xiaoling,LEI Kunjiang |
| (Guizhou Meteorological Service Center, Guiyang 550002 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to objectively describe the prediction performance of numerical forecast visibility products in complex terrain areas, this paper defined the low visibility process and selected typical processes in 2016 autumn and winter in Guizhou mountains to test visibility forecast of ECMWF global numerical model and south China mesoscale numerical model. Study found that the visibility level’s prediction performance of radiation fog was significantly worse than frontal fog process, and the mesoscale model of south China was significantly worse than that of ECMWF model. Fog’s prediction skills of each model were very low, while the prediction skills of light fog were obviously higher. In particular, ECMWF model had certain reference for light fog in frontal fog process, while prediction skills of each model for radiation fog were particularly insufficient. In frontal fog process, ECMWF model could predict fog in the western plateau of Guizhou and light fog in the east, but the prediction field of each time and time and method is not good in the central region of guizhou. |
| Key words: low visibility； numerical model prediction； prediction performance； test |
