摘要: |
该文基于水城县国家气象观测站1986—2015年的逐日观测资料,利用线性回归、Morlet小波分析等方法,对水城县近30 a气温和降水的气候特征进行分析。结果表明:①水城县年平均气温在近30 a来呈现显著的上升趋势,其中春、夏、秋三季的平均温度对年平均气温的增加起到了重要贡献,且冬季在近15 a来更容易发生极端暖冬与冷冬事件;②水城县年平均降水量在近30 a来存在一定的减少趋势,但与气温不同,夏、秋两季的降水占到了全年的75%以上,从而与全年降水量的变化特征息息相关,并且在气候变暖的背景之下,水城县夏、秋季的降水在2000年以来年际变率显著变大,从而导致当地更容易出现极端的旱涝事件;③过去30 a水城县的年极端最高气温出现在春季和初夏的次数最多,3—6月共有25次,占比高达80.6%,年极端最低温所出现的月份则主要集中在冬季(12月—翌年1月);④水城县平均气温的增加与极端降水的变化之间存在密切联系,水城县年均暴雨日数主要集中在6—8月,在全年暴雨日数中占比达到79%(51 d),而水城县近30 a的年暴雨日数在气温升高、总降水量减少的背景之下仍出现了显著的增加趋势。 |
关键词: 水城县;气温;降水量;气候特征 |
DOI: |
投稿时间:2019-08-22 |
基金项目:中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2016-066):滇黔准静止锋背景下的贵州晴雨预报方法研究 |
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The new change characteristics of temperature and precipitation of Shuicheng in recent 30 years under the global climate warming |
YAN Rui,DONG Rui,LONG Yuan,ZHANG Runqiong,XIAO Yanlin |
(Liupanshui Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Liupanshui 553000 , China;Shuicheng Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Shuicheng 553000 , China) |
Abstract: |
Based on the daily observation dataset, by using linear regression and Morlet wavelet analysis , the climatic characteristics of temperature and precipitation of Shuicheng in the past 30 years was analysed. Result shows that the average temperature of Shuicheng shows an increasing trend over the 30 past years, in which the average temperature in spring, summer and autumn has played an important role, and the extreme warm or cold winter has happened respectively more frequently in the past 15 years. Then there is a decreasing trend of the average annual rainfall of Shuicheng in the past nearly 30 years, while different from temperature, the average rainfall of summer and autumn accounts for more than 75% of the yearly total. And it is closely related with the variation characteristics of annual precipitation. Additionally, under the background of global climate warming, the interannual variability of precipitation in summer and autumn of Shuicheng has significantly increased since 2000, leading to more extreme drought and flood events. In the past 30 years, the annual extreme maximum temperature in Shuicheng has occurred in spring and early summer most frequently. There are 25 times from March to June, accounting for 80.6%. The annual extreme low temperature has mainly appeared in winter from December to January of the next year. Besides, there is a close relationship between the increase of average temperature and the change of extreme precipitation in Shuicheng, and the number of annual rainstorm days is mainly from June to August, accounting for 79% (51 days) of the total annual rainstorm days. However, the number of annual rainstorm days in Shuicheng has still shown a significant increase trend under the background of temperature rise and total precipitation decrease in the recent 30 years. |
Key words: Shuicheng; temperature; precipitation; climatic characteristics |