| 摘要: |
| 利用贵州省2012—2016年重要天气报、雷暴观测资料等，统计了雷暴大风时空分布特征，结果表明：贵州雷暴大风发生在3—10月，5月和8月发生次数最多，一天当中雷暴大风发生的高频时段在午后到前半夜，峰值出现在15—18时（北京时，下同）。贵州发生雷暴大风高频地带总体呈东北—西南向分布，西南部为高发区。利用NCEP再分析资料统计雷暴大风过程物理量场的特征，选取对流有效位能、对流抑制能量、下沉对流有效位能、大气可降水量、垂直风切变等8个动力和热力指标，分别给出其春季和夏季的阈值。基于指标阈值的统计结果，建立多指标叠套雷暴大风落区预报方法，结果表明预报落区与雷暴大风实际发生区域有较好的一致性，但仍然需要预报员根据环境条件做出订正。 |
| 关键词: 雷暴大风；时空分布；对流参数；指标叠套法 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2019-09-03 |
| 基金项目:贵州省气象局青年科技基金（黔气函〔2016〕276号）：贵州雷暴大风的分布特征和对流参数的研究；贵州省科技厅基金（黔科合J字[2013]2176号）：基于对流参数的贵州春季冰雹潜势预报研究 |
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| Temporal and spatial distribution of Guizhou thunderstorm gales and the characteristic analysis of convective parameters |
| LI Li,WAN Xueli,QI Dapeng,ZHOU Yongshui,PENG Fang,GU Tianhong |
| (Guizhou Meteorological Observatory, Guiyang 550002 , China;Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate, Guiyang 550002 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| Th temporal and spatial distributions of thunderstorm gales in Guizhou were analyzed based on significant weather reports and the observed thunder data during 2012—2016．The results show that the thunderstorm gales occurred from March to October, mostly in May and August. The thunderstorm gales were recorded mostly from afternoon to early night during the day, and the peak appeared from 15∶00 to 18∶00 (Beijing time, the same as after). The thunderstorm gales were seen mainly in the northeast southwest orientation of Guizhou, and the frequency of thunderstorm gales in southwest was the greatest than the other place. The physical quantity field characteristics of the thunderstorm gales processes were analyzed by using the NCEP reanalysis data. Eight averaged statistical dynamical and thermo-dynamical indexes (CAPE, CIN, DCAPE, atmospheric perceptible water, vertical wind shear, et al) were selected to suggest the minimum threshold in spring and summer respectively. Based on the statistical results of indexes threshold, a multi-indicator superposition method was developed to predict the thunderstorm gales area. The results showed that the forecasted areas were identical with the areas where thunderstorm gales happened. But corrections were still needed by forecasters based on the environmental conditions. |
| Key words: thunderstorm gales； temporal and spatial distribution； convective parameters； indicator superposition method |
