| 摘要: |
| 利用ERA5逐小时再分析资料、常规观测资料、FY-2G卫星资料、闪电定位资料及雷达资料对2019年11月2-3日发生在山东的强雷暴过程进行诊断分析。结果表明：（1）此次强雷暴过程是高空槽东移，中高层干冷空气入侵和地面辐合线抬升触发低层不稳定能量释放造成的，这种上干下湿的大气层结特征，有利于雷暴发生发展。（2）850hpa和500hpa温差是秋季强雷暴生成的一个重要条件，当T850-T500≥26℃时，对雷暴发生十分有利；θse水平分布中高能舌的位置跟强雷暴发生的区域对应较好。（3）秋季强对流发生时对流云团高度较夏季偏低，TBB值较夏季偏高，此次雷暴过程发生时云顶温度TBB在-22℃至-32℃，强雷暴主要位于冷云盖前方TBB梯度大值区域内。（4）雷达回波中心反射率因子在45DBZ以上，1.5-5km存在非常强的垂直风切变，对秋季雷暴预报有很好的指示作用。 |
| 关键词: 强对流;雷暴;不稳定能量;TBB |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2020-04-30修订日期：2020-07-21 |
| 基金项目:山东省气象局预报员专项“鲁西北雷暴大风的时空分布及物理量特征分析”(SDYBY2018-15)资助。 |
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| Cause analysis of a rare severe thunderstorm in autumn in Shandong Province |
| Chen Hua kai,Lv wei Qi,Wang Yi Peng |
| (Dezhou Meteorological Bureau;Shandong Province) |
| Abstract: |
| Use ERA5 hourly re-analysis data, conventional observation data, FY-2G satellite data, lightning positioning data and radar data to diagnose and analyze the severe thunderstorm process that occurred in Shandong on November 2-3, 2019. The results show that: (1) The strong thunderstorm process was caused by the eastward movement of the upper-altitude trough, the intrusion of dry and cold air in the upper and middle layers and the rise of the ground convergence line triggering the release of unstable energy in the lower layer. Thunderstorms occur and develop. (2) The temperature difference between 850hpa and 500hpa is an important condition for the generation of strong thunderstorms in autumn. When the temperature difference T850-T500≥26℃, it is very favorable for the occurrence of thunderstorms; the position of the high-energy tongue in the horizontal distribution of θse corresponds to the area where the strong thunderstorms occur it is good. (3) When strong convection occurs in autumn, the height of the convective cloud is lower than that in summer, and the TBB value is higher than that in summer. The cloud top temperature TBB is in the range of -22℃ to -32℃ during the thunderstorm process, and the strong thunderstorm is mainly located in front of the cold cloud cover Within the TBB gradient large value area. (4) The reflectivity factor of the radar echo center is above 45DBZ, and there is a very strong vertical wind shear at 1.5-5km, which is a good indicator for autumn thunderstorm forecast.Thunderstorm Forecast in autumn. |
| Key words: strong convection; Thunderstorm;unstable energy; TBB |
