| 摘要: |
| 利用大理机场5年天气观测资料和FNL 1.0X1.0数据,对大理机场雷暴特征及潜势预报进行分析,结果发现：大理机场全年各月都有可能出现雷暴天气,雷暴天气主要出现在6~9月,每年7月和8月雷暴天气出现最为频繁；雷暴天气持续时间0~1小时的次数最多,持续时间1~2小时的雷暴也比较常见,持续时间4~6小时的次数较少,没有出现持续时间6小时以上的雷暴；雷暴可以出现在大理机场的任何方向,出现在东边的次数最多,出现在天顶的次数最少；雷暴初期平均在1月31日,雷暴终期平均在11月14日,雷暴的初期和终期年际差别较大。选取对流有效位能、500hPa相对湿度、0度层高度、近地表四层等压面的抬升指数和可降水量作为预报因子建立大理机场雷暴预报方程,预报方程是显著的，有较好的雷暴潜势预报能力。 |
| 关键词: 大理机场；雷暴；潜势预报；多元回归分析； |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2019-08-07修订日期：2019-12-14 |
| 基金项目:云南高原山地机场强对流天气短时临近预报系统研发项目（2017CX01） |
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| Analysis of Thunderstorm Characteristics and Potential Forecast in Dali Airport |
| Bi bo,Gao bing,Yang hang |
| (Dali Airport of Yunnan Airport Group Company,Dali,671000) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the 5-year weather observation data of Dali airport and FNL 1.0x1.0 data, the characteristics and potential forecast of thunderstorms in Dali airport are analyzed. The results show that thunderstorms may occur in every month of the year in Dali airport, mainly in June to September, and most frequently in July and August. The frequency of thunderstorms lasting 0 to 1 hour is the most frequent, and the frequency of thunderstorms lasting 1 to 2 hours is also relatively common. The frequency of thunderstorms lasting 4 to 6 hours is less, and there is no thunderstorm lasting more than 6 hours. Thunderstorms can occur in any direction, most often in the east and least often at the zenith. The mean time of the initial thunderstorm is January 31, and the mean time of the final thunderstorm is November 14. The effective potential energy of convection, 500hPa relative humidity, 0-degree layer height, isobaric surface uplift index of four layers near the surface and precipitation were selected as the prediction factors to establish the thunderstorm prediction equation of Dali airport.The prediction equation was significant and had good thunderstorm potential prediction ability. |
| Key words: Dali Airport; Thunderstorm; Potential Forecast; Multivariate Regression Analysis; |
