| 摘要: |
| 利用1961-2016年贵州省地面气象观测降水资料、ERSST全球月平均海温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及国家气候中心提供的环流特征量资料，分析了1961-2016年贵州省持续干旱事件的变化特征及其成因，结果表明：从年代际统计特征来看，贵州省持续性干旱事件以冬旱、春旱发生次数最多，夏旱其次，秋旱最少，但秋旱有增加的趋势；孟加拉湾北部出现的异常反气旋式环流以及南海地区的异常气旋式环流阻断了贵州地区水汽来源，使得贵州大部分地区的降水异常偏少；此外，东亚地区中低纬度高层大气和西伯利亚地区的高层大气的异常环流系统导致冷空气集中在高纬度地区，南支槽和副热带高压偏弱，不利于降水的形成；贵州持续性干旱事件与东太平洋拉尼娜现象、北太平洋以及北大西洋地区的海温异常分布存在密切关系，东太平洋及大西洋地区的海温异常可作为预测贵州持续性干旱事件的一个重要前期信号。 |
| 关键词: 持续性干旱；干旱特征；干旱成因 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2019-04-18修订日期：2019-04-18 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Analysis on characteristics and causes of persistent drought in Guizhou from 1961-2016 |
| YANXIAODONG |
| (Technology and forecast office of guizhou meteorological bureau) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the ground meteorological observation precipitation data, ERSST global monthly mean sea temperature data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and circulation characteristic data provided by National Climate Center from 1961 to 2016 in Guizhou Province, the research analyzes the characteristics and causes of the persistent drought events in Guizhou Province from 1961 to 2016.The results are as follows: According to the inter-decadal statistical characteristics, winter drought and spring drought occurred most frequently in Guizhou, followed by summer drought and autumn drought, but autumn drought tended to increase. The source of water vapor is blocked by the anomalous anticyclone circulation in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal and the anomalous cyclone circulation in the South China Sea, so precipitation anomaly is less in most areas of Guizhou. The anomalous circulation system of the upper atmosphere in the middle and low latitudes of East Asia and Siberia leads to the anomalous westerly belt, which concentrates cold air in the high latitudes, besides, the intensity of the southern branch trough and subtropical high weakened are not conducive to the precipitation. The persistent drought event in Guizhou is closely related to La Nina phenomenon in the East Pacific Ocean and the abnormal distribution of sea temperature in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. The abnormal sea temperature in the East Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean can be used as an important early signal for predicting the persistent drought event in Guizhou. |
| Key words: persistent drought; drought characteristics; drought causes |
