| 摘要: |
| 基于8个气候模式和多模式集合数据(21个气候模式简单集合)和观测数据,评估了其在气候基准期内对云南气温、降水的模拟能力,在评估基础上应用多模式集合数据,预估了未来不同排放情景下云南气温、降水的空间变化情况。结果表明：多模式集合和部分模式能较好的模拟出基准期气温、降水的变化趋势；在空间分布特征上,气候模式(包括多模式集合)对多年平均气温的模拟相对较好,但在气温、降水的年内分布模拟上,多模式集合结果的模拟效果相对较好。未来预估结果表明,未来云南地区降水呈西增东减的空间部分特征,而气温在三种排放情景下则表现为一致的增加。 |
| 关键词: 气候模式;模式评估;CMIP5 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2019-01-21修订日期：2019-03-13 |
| 基金项目:CMIP5气候模式对云南气候变化模拟评估及未来情景预估 |
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| Evaluation and Projection of Precipitation over Yunnan Province on Modeling Data from CMIP5 |
| Tian Mengqing,Zhang Jie,Luo Yang,Wang Chao,He Xiaoguo |
| (MeteorologicalSBureau of Guiyang,Guiyang Guizhou;MeteorologicalSBureau of Xifeng,Xifeng Guizhou) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on 8 global climate models and multi-model ensemble’s simulations, the performances of simulating the present climate over Yunnan province are assessed. Compared with observations, the multi-model ensemble and part of the 8 global climate models can capture the dominant features of the linear trend of temperature and precipitation during 1986-2005.For the spatial changes, individual models and multi-model ensemble appear to have a better performance on reproducing multi annual average temperature than precipitation. However, both of the performance of the multi-model ensemble to reproduce the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation are better than those simulated by individual models. Based on the projections of multi-model ensemble, precipitation will increase in the western of Yunnan province, while the eastern Yunnan province will experience a decrease during the period 2020-2035.For temperature, a consistent increase can be found in all scenarios. |
| Key words: Climate models; model evaluation; CMIP5 |
