| 摘要: |
| 基于贵州省威宁县2012年12月-2018年8月国家基准气候站(以下简称“国家站”)和52个区域自动观测站(以下简称“区域站”)的逐日最高最低气温资料，采用统计学方法和加权最小二乘法，分析威宁县近几年来最高最低气温的变化特征及国家站和部分区域站最高最低气温的相关性。结果表明：四季中，最低气温存在稳定的低值中心和高值中心，而最高气温只存在稳定的高值中心。春、夏、秋季的最高最低气温和冬季的最低气温分布与地形基本一致，但冬季的最高气温分布受地形和滇黔静止锋共同影响却有所变化。根据拟合方程得出的各乡镇气温预报值比直接用EC模式的预报值准确率更高，其误差值≤|2|℃。随着方程相关系数的减小，预报准确率相应降低，误差范围对应增大，预报准确率的高低与相关系数的变化具有一致性。 |
| 关键词: 乡镇气温预报; 加权最小二乘法; 相关性 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2018-12-04修订日期：2019-07-16 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Analysis and forecast method for maximum and minimum temperature in towns of Weining |
| caijun,yang chengmei,ni ni,zhang yukui,yu lv |
| (Weining Meteorological Service) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of the national reference climate station (hereinafter referred to as the "national station") and 52 regional automatic observatories (hereinafter referred to as the "regional station") from December 2012 to August 2018 in Weining.The variation characteristics of the maximum and minimum temperature in recent years were analyzed by statistical method and weighted least square method. The results show that there are stable low-value centers and high-value centers in the lowest temperature during the four seasons, while there are only stable high-value centers in the highest temperature. The distribution of maximum and minimum temperature in spring, summer and autumn and minimum temperature in winter are basically consistent with that of topography.But the distribution of maximum temperature in winter is affected by topography and stationary front. According to the fitting equation, the accuracy of the temperature forecast value of each township is higher than that of the direct EC model, and the error value is less than | 2 |℃. With the decrease of the correlation coefficient of the equation, the prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly, and the error range increases correspondingly. The prediction accuracy is consistent with the variation of the correlation coefficient. |
| Key words: town temperature forecast; weighted least squares method; correlation |
