| 摘要: |
| 本文利用2010-2014年雅安市381个区域自动站雨量数据、micaps实况资料以及NCEP再分析资料,选取这5年典型的53个个例对其进行环流形势分型,根据结果显示,(1)影响雅安市短时强降水的环流形势主要包括：高原切变型、高空槽型、低涡型、副高控制型、两高切变型、台风外围型。切变型占所有比例中的43%,并对典型个例分析其高低空天气系统的配置,最后将环流形势的主要特征归纳为三大类型：高原切变型、两高切变型,以及副高控制型。并分析其高低空主要配置,建立三种类型的天气模型。(2)利用NCEP再分析资料计算强降水发生时物理量的阈值,统计分析超过短时强降水样本60%以上的各个物理量阈值。热力和水汽条件方面,高空切变型和两高切变型普遍比副高控制型较好,动力方面,前两种动力参数指示意义较好,以系统性辐合抬升为主,而第三种主要是受低层偏东风的扰动和地形的作用引起的局地抬升作用。 |
| 关键词: 环流形势;天气模型 物理量阈值 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2018-01-10修订日期：2018-03-13 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Short - duration precipitation weather model and their physical index characteristics in Ya`an |
| qiu shuang,wang jun yi,wu ya ping,cheng chao ping,yuan guiying |
| (Ya''an Meteorological Bureau;Sichuan Meteorological Bureau) |
| Abstract: |
| : This articles by using 2010-2014 yaan 381 regional automatic station precipitation data, micaps live data and NCEP reanalysis data, the selection of the five typical 53 years alone on the circulation situation, classification, according to the results showed that (1) influence the circulation situation of yaan short-time strong rainfall mainly includes: cut plateau variant, upper trough, low vortex, the subtropical high control type, cut variant, typhoon periphery type projects. Pattern, and accounts for 43% of all proportion and the typical example to analyze its height empty weather system configuration, the final will be the main characteristic of circulation divided into three types: plateau, and, projects variant cutting type and the subtropical high control. In this paper, three types of weather models are established. (2) using the NCEP reanalysis data to calculate the threshold value of physical quantity when heavy precipitation occurs, the statistical analysis is more than 60% of the various physical threshold values in the sample of the short-term strong precipitation samples. Heat and moisture conditions, high cut variants and projects, and is generally better than the subtropical high control type power, the first two kinds of dynamic parameters indicating significance is better, with systemic convergence lift is given priority to, and the third is mainly by the low-level PianDongFeng disturbance caused by the action of atmospheric and landforms arose. |
| Key words: Circulation situation; weather model physical quantity threshold |
