“全球变暗”背景下内蒙古日照时数变化特征及主要气候影响因素
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1.内蒙古自治区气候中心;2.呼和浩特市气象局;3.中国民用航空飞行学院航空气象学院

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内蒙古科技计划项目(2025KJHZ0047);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2024LHMS04013, 2024LHMS04018);内蒙古气象软科学项目(NMGQXRKX2025 02004);内蒙古气象科技创新项目(nmqxkj cx202446) 。


Variation Characteristics of Sunshine Hours and Main Climatic Impact Factors in Inner Mongolia under the Background of " Global Dimming"
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1.Inner Mongolia Climate Center;2.Hohhot Meteorological Bureauof Inner Mongolia;3.College of Aviation Meteorology,Civil Aviation Flight University of China

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    摘要:

    【 目的】探究“全球变暗”背景下内蒙古日照时数演变特征及影响因素。【方法】基于 1961-2024 年地面气象观测数据,采用线性倾向估计、Mann - Kendall 检验及小波分析等方法,从多时间尺度系统分析其变化规律与气候驱动因子。 【结果】内蒙古年日照时数空间呈“西高东低 ”分布,整体以 17. 5 h/(10 a) 速率极显著下降(P < 0. 001), 西部 - 19. 2 h/(10 a) 、中部 - 28. 9 h/(10 a) 、东部 - 10. 8 h/(10 a) 。四季均呈下降趋势,夏季 - 10. 4 h/(10 a) 、秋季 - 7. 3 h/(10 a), 下降极显著 (P < 0. 001), 冬春季不显著;月尺度上 5-7、9 月极显著下降(P < 0. 001), 8、11 月显著(P < 0. 01), 3、10 月较显著(P < 0. 1) 。年日照时数于 2014 年发生减少突变,存在 3 a 主周期。气候因子相关分析显示,日照时数与总云量、水汽压、降水量、气温呈显著负相关(r = - 0. 215 - 0. 539, P < 0. 1), 与大风日数呈显著正相关(r = 0. 2060. 436, P < 0. 1) 。【结论】研究明确了内蒙古日照时数的时空演变、突变及周期特征,揭示了关键气候影响机制,可为区域太阳能开发、农业适应及气候变化应对提供科学支撑。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the evolution characteristics of sunshine duration and the influencing factors in Inner Mongolia under the background of " global dimming", by using the surface meteorological observations from 1961 to 2024 and the methods of linear tendency estimation, Mann - Kendall test, and wavelet analysis, this paper systematically analyze the variation patterns and climatic drivers of sunshine duration across multiple temporal scales. The annual sunshine hours in Inner Mongolia exhibit a spatial pattern of " more in the west and fewer in the east, " with an overall extremely significant decreasing trend of - 17. 5 h per decade (P < 0. 001). To be in detail, the decline rates are - 19. 2 h per decade (P < 0. 01) in the west, - 28. 9 h per decade (P < 0. 001) in the central region, and - 10. 8 h per decade (P < 0. 1) in the east. All four seasons have decreasing trends in sunshine hours, with highly significant reductions in summer (- 10. 4 h/decade) (P < 0. 001) and autumn (- 7. 3 h/decade) (P < 0. 001). However, the decreasing trend in winter and spring is not significant. At the monthly scale, extremely significant decline of sunshine duration is seen in May, June, July, and September (P < 0. 001), significant decline in August and November (P < 0. 01), and relatively significant declines in March and October (P < 0. 1). An abrupt decrease in annual sunshine hours was detected around 2014, with a dominant cycle period of approximately 3 years. Correlation analysis of climate factors indicates that sunshine hours have significantly negative correlations (r = - 0. 215 to - 0. 539, P < 0. 1) with total cloud cover, water vapor pressure, precipitation, and temperature, but a significant positive correlation with strong wind days (r = 0. 206 to 0. 436, P <0. 1). In general, this study clarifies the spatio_temporal evolution, abrupt change, and periodic characteristics of sunshine duration in Inner Mongolia, and reveals the key climatic mechanisms that drive these changes. The study findings could be a scientific support for regional solar energy development, agricultural adaptation, and response to climate change.

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杨丽桃,孙永刚,戴玉芝,等.“全球变暗”背景下内蒙古日照时数变化特征及主要气候影响因素[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(3):74-80.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-02-05
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-06
  • 录用日期:2026-05-06
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-11
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