基于分位数映射与 LGBM 方法的我国西南地区次季节降水预报订正研究
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1.贵州新气象科技有限责任公司;2.贵州省山地气象科学研究所;3.国家气候中心;4.贵州省气候中心

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2442206) ;贵州新气象科技有限责任公司 “揭榜挂帅 ”项目(2024 - N69) ;中国气象局创新发展项目(CXFZ2024J002) ;中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(2423020054) 。


A Study on Sub-Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Correction in Southwest China Based on Quantile Mapping and LGBM Method
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1.Guizhou New Weather Technology Co,Ltd,Guiyang City,Guizhou Province;2.Guizhou Institute of Mountain Meteorological Sciences;3.National Climate Center,Beijing City;4.Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang City,Guizhou Province

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    摘要:

    【 目的】为降低我国西南地区降水预报的时空偏差。【方法】采用分位数映射(Quantile Mapping, QM) 与机器学习方法轻量级梯度提升机(LightGBM)对欧洲中心(EC)数值模式在西南地区 5—8 月的 0 ~ 45 d 降水预报开展误差订正研究。 【结果】EC 模式原始预报均方根误差(RMSE)大值区主要集中在四川东部到重庆西部地区,空间相关性随提前时间迅速下降。 QM 方法虽然在概率密度函数曲线上更加接近观测,但由于模式预测的空间相关系数较低,对中等强度以下降水的预报误差反而增大,雨日命中率和漏报率均有所提高。相比之下,LGBM 方法显著降低了各预报时段的 RMSE , 并提升了空间相关系数,尤其在中大雨以上的降水事件中展现出更强的泛化能力。【结论】LGBM 在降水概率密度重构、强降水 RMSE 控制及雨日事件识别等方面均显著优于 QM 和原始预报,说明相较于传统的统计方法,机器学习订正方法可有效降低西南地区降水预报的时空偏差,为未来模式订正研究提供了可行路径。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: To reduce the spatiotemproral bias in precipitation forecasts in the Southwest region of China. This paper employs Quantile Mapping ( QM) and the machine learning method LightGBM to conduct error correction research on the May - August 0 — 45 day precipitation forecasts from the European Centre (EC) numerical models for the southwestern region . The results indicate that the high-value areas of root mean square error (RMSE) in the original EC model forecasts are mainly concentrated in eastern Sichuan to western Chongqing , and the spatial correlation descends rapidly with lead time . Although the QM method brings the probability density function curve closer to observations , it increases the forecast error of precipitation below moderate intensity due to the model's low spatial correlation coefficient , while the hit rate and the false alarm rate on rainy days have both increased . In contrast , the LGBM method significantly reduces RMSE and enhances spatial correlation coefficients across all forecast lead times , particularly demonstrating stronger generalization capability for moderate-to-heavy precipitation events . Further analysis shows that LGBM significantly outperforms both QM and the original forecasts in terms of reconstructing the probability density of precipitation , controlling RMSE of heavy precipitation , and identifying rainy- day events . This indicates that , compared to traditional statistical methods , the machine learning-based correction approach can effectively reduce spatio-temporal biases of precipitation forecasts for the southwestern region of China. This is a feasible path for future model correction research .

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郭增元,严小冬,柯宗建,等.基于分位数映射与 LGBM 方法的我国西南地区次季节降水预报订正研究[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(1):99-105.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-08
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-27
  • 录用日期:2026-02-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-10
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