滇中山区强对流天气智能预警方法研究
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1.云南省人工影响天气中心;2.中国气象局雷达气象重点开放实验室;3.四川省气象灾害防御技术中心;4.四川省气象台

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中国气象局雷达气象重点开放基金项目(2024LRM-B04),四川省科技厅地方科技发展专项项目(2023ZYD0147),云南省气象局科研项目(YZ202329)和高原院川西南雅安分中心科技发展基金项目(CXNBYSYSYWZD202402)


Research on Intelligent Early Warning Method for Severe Convective Weather in the Mountainous Area of Central Yunnan
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1.Weather Modification Centerof Yunnan Province;2.CMARadar Meteorology Key Laboratory;3.Sichuan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center;4.Sichuan Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    【目的】有效提升滇中山区复杂地形条件下强对流天气预警时效和精度。【方法】首先,基于双偏振雷达参量提高多种型号雷达数据质量;其次,构建多部双偏振天气雷达协同组网方法,获取时空分辨率一致性融合数据;最后,基于分类强对流天气宏微观雷达特征数据、地面站实况观测数据和改进的 ViT - Large 深度学习模型建立强对流天气预警方法。基于滇中山区 5 a 来强对流天气过程历史资料,开展对比分析实验和定量化评估。【结果】相较于传统预警方法,改进的智能预警方法对各类强对流天气预警结果的临界成功指数平均评分提高约 58. 5%, 虚警率平均评分降低约 29. 75%, 漏报率平均评分降低约 40%;连续排序概率平均评分降低约 51. 42%;预警时间提前量从平均约 9. 5 min 提高至约 27 min。【结论】本文建立的强对流天气智能预警方法,能够覆盖山地地形遮挡盲区,提高观测数据时空分辨率,解决复杂地形条件下强对流天气非线性发展演变问题,显著提高滇中山区强对流天气预警时效和精度。

    Abstract:

    The objective of this study is to effectively improve the timeliness and accuracy of severe convective weather early warning in the mountainous areas of central Yunnan under complex terrain conditions. Firstly, the quality of multi_type radar data is improved based on the dual_polarization radar parameters. Secondly, a collaborative networking method for multiple dual_polarization weather radars is established to obtain fusion data with consistent spatio_temporal resolution. Finally, a fast and accurate early warning method for severe convective weather is built based on macro_ and micro_scale radar characteristics data of classified severe convective weather, surface station observation data, and an improved ViT_Large deep learning model. In addition, comparative analysis experiments and quantitative evaluations are conducted with historical data of severe convective weather processes in the central Yunnan region over the past five years. The results show that, relative to traditional early warning methods, the improved intelligent early warning method helps achieve the following improvements: the critical success index mean score is increased by approximately 58. 5%; the false alarm rate mean score is decreased by approximately 29. 75%; the missing alarm rate mean score is decreased by approximately 40%; the continuous ranked probability mean score is decreased by approximately 51. 42%; and the lead time of early warnings is increased from an average of approximately 9. 5 min to approximately 27 min. Therefore, the intelligent early_warning method for severe convective weather established in this study can cover the blind areas of observation caused by mountain terrain, improve the spatio_temporal resolution of observation data, and solve the problem of non_linear development and evolution of severe convective weather under complex terrain conditions. This could significantly enhance the timeliness and accuracy of early warning of severe convective weather in the mountainous regions of central Yunnan.

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李成鹏,王磊,季鸿语,等.滇中山区强对流天气智能预警方法研究[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(3):113-122.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-25
  • 录用日期:2026-04-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-11
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