1974—2023年遵义市极端气候指数特征分析
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1.贵州省桐梓县气象局;2.贵州省七星关区气象局;3.贵州省大方县气象局;4.贵州省山地气象科学研究所

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遵义市气象局市县联合科研基金项目(ZYQXKY - SX〔2024〕11 号);贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登〔2024〕08 - 12 号);毕科联合项目(〔2024〕03 号)。


Analysis on Characteristic of Extreme Climate Indices in Zunyi City from 1974 to 2023
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1.Tongzi Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province;2.Qixingguan Meteorological Station of Bijie City,Guizhou Province;3.Dafang Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province;4.Guizhou Institute of Mountain Meteorological Science

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    摘要:

    【 目的】揭示 1974-2023 年遵义市极端气候指数演变规律,为防灾减灾提供科学依据。【方法】基于 12 个气象站 50 a 逐日数据,通过极端气候指数计算,结合小波分析、Mann_Kendall 检验等方法进行时空特征分析。【结果】1)极端气温呈现显著的“冷衰减-暖增强”非对称转型:冷昼、冷夜日数分别以 0. 89 d/(10 a) 、1. 87 d/(10 a) 的速率减少;暖昼、暖夜日数则以 1. 85 d/(10 a) 、1. 88 d/(10 a) 的速率增加。2)极端降水未呈现系统性增强趋势,仅持续湿润日数以 0. 23 d/(10 a) 的速率减少,单日最大降水量与暴雨日数虽存在年际波动,但趋势未通过显著性检验。3)气温指数的波动周期(3. 014. 9 a)普遍短于降水指数(3. 721. 1 a), 且冷指数主周期(3. 25. 3 a) 较暖指数(4. 08. 6 a) 更短。4) 20 世纪 80 年代中期至 21 世纪初是气候转型的关键阶段,霜冻日数、暖昼日数等多数指数在此期间发生突变;持续性预测显示未来极端高温及强降水事件将持续当前趋势,而冷事件衰减可能成为长期不可逆过程。5)主成分分析表明气温变化以暖化加剧、低温事件衰减为主导模式;而降水变化则呈现出极端降水强度与总量协同增强的典型特征。【结论】遵义市极端气候事件呈现“高温加剧、冷事件衰减、降水变率增大与干旱风险上升”的演变特征,21 世纪初为转型关键阶段。

    Abstract:

    This paper investigates the evolution of extreme climate indices in Zunyi City from 1974 to 2023 to provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on 50_year daily data from 12 meteorological stations, 27 extreme indices are calculated with the RClimDex model, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the extreme indices are analyzed by the methods of Wavelet analysis and the Mann_Kendall test. The results indicate that: (1) There was a significant asymmetric transformation in extreme temperatures characterized by " declining cold extremes and intensifying warm extremes " in Zunyi City during the 50 years. The numbers of cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) decreased at rates of 0. 89 day and 1. 87 day per decade while warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) increased at rates of 1. 85 day and 1. 88 day per decade, respectively. (2) Extreme precipitation did not show systematic intensifying trend over the 50_year period. Only consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased significantly at the rate of 0. 23 day per decade. Although interannual fluctuations existed in the maximum daily precipitation and heavy rain days, the fluctuation trend failed to pass the significance test. (3) The fluctuation periods of temperature indices (3. 0 - 14. 9 years) were generally shorter than those of precipitation indices (3. 7 - 21. 1 years). Furthermore, cold indices exhibited shorter dominant periods (3. 2 - 5. 3 years) compared to warm indices (4. 0 - 8. 6 years). (4) The years from mid_1980s to the early 21 st century was identified as a key transitional period, during which abrupt changes occurred in most indices, such as frost days (FD0) and warm days (TX90p). Persistent prediction suggests that the observed trends would continue in future extreme high_temperature and heavy precipitation events, while the decline in cold events might become a long_ term, irreversible process. (5) Principal component analysis reveals that temperature variability is dominated by intensified warming and a decline in low_temperature extremes, whereas precipitation changes are characterized by a coordinated enhancement of extreme precipitation intensity and total amount. In conclusion, extreme climate events in Zunyi City are evolving with intensifying high temperatures, weakening cold events, increasing precipitation variability, and rising drought risks, and the early 21 st century is marked as a critical transition phase of these climate indices.

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王志红,罗亚楠,衮毅,等.1974—2023年遵义市极端气候指数特征分析[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(3):81-89.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-06
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-12
  • 录用日期:2025-12-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-11
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