ECMWF细网格气温预报在贵州省的性能检验
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1.贵州省气象台;2.贵州省毕节市气象局;3.贵州省三穗县气象局

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国家自然科学基金项目(42265001);贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目(黔气科合SS〔2023〕29号)


Evaluation of ECMWF Fine_Grid Temperature Forecast in Guizhou Province
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1.Guizhou Meteorological Observatory;2.Bijie Meteorological Officeof Guizhou Province;3.Sansui Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province

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    摘要:

    【目的】定量评估欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium_Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF) 数值模式对贵州省 2 m 气温的预报性能,提升其业务应用价值。【方法】基于 2020-2023 年 ECMWF 的 168 h 逐 24 h 的最高(低)气温预报资料,对贵州典型天气事件及不同海拔地形条件下的预报性能进行评估与检验。【结果】1) 168 h 内逐 24 h 最高(低)气温的平均准确率与均方根误差在区域、年际及月际上存在差异,日最低气温预报准确率普遍高于日最高气温 30% 40%,且稳定性更好;2)月际变化上,日最高气温准确率在 6 月和 10 月为高值,呈多峰型分布,而日最低气温呈单峰型分布,峰值出现在 7 月;3)对于寒潮和强降温天气事件,日最高(低)气温预报在 16872 h 的预报准确率较为稳定,但在临近 4824 h 预报中,准确率反而下降,平均均方根误差均急剧增大至 6. 010. 6 ℃;4)从预报质量随海拔分布来看,当海拔在 10001500 m时表现最优,向更高与更低海拔区则逐渐降低。【结论】研究揭示了 ECMWF 气温预报在贵州复杂地形下的误差量化特征,为优化其业务化应用提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    This study quantitatively evaluates the performance of 2 m air temperature forecasts from the ECMWF model over Guizhou Province to enhance its operational application. Based on 24 h maximum and minimum temperature forecasts within 168 h lead time from 2020 to 2023, comprehensive assessment is conducted on the temperature forecast performance across the entire province, considering typical weather events and varying altitudes. The results indicate that: (1) The mean forecast accuracy and root mean square error (RMSE) for both 24 h maximum and minimum temperature forecasts within 168 h lead time exhibit significant regional, inter_annual and monthly variations. The accuracy of daily minimum temperature forecasts is consistently 30% - 40% higher than that of maximum temperature forecasts, and has greater stability. (2) On a monthly scale, the accuracy of daily maximum temperature forecasts shows a multi_peak distribution, with peaks appearing in June and October. However, the accuracy for daily minimum temperatures follows a single_peak pattern, concentrated in July. (3) During cold wave and sharp cooling events, the forecast accuracy of daily maximum (minimum) temperature remains relatively stable from 168 h to 72 h ahead. However, the accuracy markedly decreases within the 48 - 24 h lead time, accompanied by a sharp increase in the average RMSE to 6. 0 - 10. 6 ℃. (4) The forecast quality varies with altitude in a single_peak distribution, achieving optimum performance at elevations between 1000 m and 1500 m, but degrading towards both higher and lower altitudes. This study elucidates the quantitative characteristics of ECMWF temperature forecast errors in the complex terrain of Guizhou, and could be a scientific basis for optimizing its operational application.

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李刚,罗亚楠,杨秀庄,等. ECMWF细网格气温预报在贵州省的性能检验[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(3):90-96.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-12
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-09
  • 录用日期:2025-12-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-11
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