长沙典型干旱过程特征及成因分析
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1.湖南省长沙市气象局/长沙国家综合气象观测试验基地;2.中国人民解放军 96732 部队;3.湖南省气候中心;4.智能空间信息国家级重点实验室

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湖南省气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024-QNZX06);长沙市气象局科研课题(CSKY202203)


Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Typical Drought Processes in Changsha
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1.Changsha Meteorological Officeof Hunan Province/Changsha National Test bed for Comprehensive Meteorological Observation of CMA;2.No.96732 Troopof PLA;3.Hunan Climate Center;4.National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Spatial Information

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    摘要:

    【目的】提高长沙市异常高温干旱预报能力。【方法】基于 1959 年 1 月 1 日-2024 年 12 月 31 日逐日气象干旱综合指数及持续性区域干旱识别方法,结合长沙市历年干旱灾情数据、NCEP/NCAR 和 NOAA 再分析日资料以及逐月海洋表面温度重建资料,分析长沙 95 次典型干旱过程的特征及成因。【结果】1)长沙典型干旱环流可分为副高偏东型(Ⅰ型)和副高控制型(聂型)。南亚高压和副热带高压共同控制易造成我国南方干旱,且二者只要有其一控制湖南地区,都易造成大范围高温干旱。相较于 Ⅰ型干旱,聂型干旱晴热时间更长、干旱更强。2) 2 类干旱过程在长沙区域对流层中下层均存在异常下沉气流,且聂型干旱下沉气流更强;水汽通量散度距平为正,均不利于降水的形成和维持。3) Ⅰ 型干旱,热带中太平洋海温异常偏低,通过影响罗斯贝波列使副高加强。 聂型干旱,前冬的拉尼娜事件通过影响西北太平洋反气旋来加强副高,副高加强协同南海附近东风异常,均不利于孟加拉湾和南海水汽向长江中下游地区输送,干旱快速发展。4)前夏黑潮显著暖海温异常;前冬乌拉尔山阻塞高压、东亚大槽加强,副高偏北以及拉尼娜事件是值得注意的前兆信号。【结论】研究有助于提高我国南方干旱气候预测能力,为水资源调度、防灾减灾提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    To improve the forecasting capability of extreme high_temperature droughts in Changsha, Hunan Province, this paper analyzes the characteristics and causes of 95 typical drought events from 1959 to 2024 using daily meteorological drought composite indices and a persistent regional drought identification method, combined with historical drought disaster records, NCEP/NCAR and NOAA reanalysis data, and reconstructed monthly sea surface temperature datasets. The results suggest that: (1) Typical drought circulation patterns in Changsha can be categorized into Type I, with a westward_shifting subtropical high, and Type II, dominated by the subtropical high. Both of the drought types are associated with the influence from the South Asian High and subtropical high, which can individually or jointly induce extensive high_temperature droughts in southern China. Compared with the Type I drought, the Type II drought has a longer duration of sunny and hot weather and the drought condition is more 163. com。 severe. (2) During both types of drought processes, anomalous subsidence is often observed in the middle and lower troposphere over the Changsha region, and the Type II drought has a much stronger downdraft. Moreover, the positive water vapor flux divergence anomalies suppress moisture condensation and the formation of precipitation. (3) Type I droughts are linked to below_normal SSTs in the central tropical Pacific, which enhance the subtropical high via Rossby wave trains. The Type II droughts are influenced by the La Niũa event in the previous winter. The La Niũa event strengthens the subtropical high through the Northwest Pacific anticyclone, and, combined with easterly anomalies over the South China Sea, collectively inhibits moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, accelerating drought development. (4) Notable precursors for drought events include warm SST anomalies in the Kuroshio region during the previous summer, as well as a strengthened Ural blocking high, intensified East Asian trough, a northward_shifted subtropical high, and a La Niũa event in the previous winter. These findings could provide a scientific basis for improving drought prediction, water resource management, and disaster mitigation in southern China.

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方韵,罗菁,陈婷,等.长沙典型干旱过程特征及成因分析[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(3):46-54.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-10
  • 录用日期:2025-10-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-11
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