贵州冬季 1 次大范围冰雹过程雷达特征分析
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1.贵州省人工影响天气中心;2.贵州省黔西南布依族苗族自治州气象局;3.贵州省山地气象科学研究所;4.贵州省气象台

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贵州省气象局省市联合科研基金项目(黔气科合 SS - KF〔2024〕11 号);中国气象局—成都信息工程大学人工影响 天气联合研究中心开放课题(2024GDRY012 、2024GDRY006) ;贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑〔2023〕一般 193 、黔科合支撑 〔2023〕一般 194) ;中国气象局雷达气象重点开放实验室开放课题(2024LRM - B01) 。


Analysis of Radar Characteristics of a Large - scale Winter Hail Process in Guizhou Province
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1.Guizhou Artificial Weather Modification Center;2.Qianxinan Bouyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province;3.Guizhou Institute of Mountain Meteorological Science;4.Guizhou Provincial Meteorological Observatory

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    【 目的】为进一步加强对贵州冬季冰雹天气事件的认识,提升贵州冬季冰雹预警能力。【方法】基于探空资料、 ERA5 数据、多普勒雷达资料等,采用数理统计方法,对贵州 2024 年 1 月 19 日冰雹过程天气背景、雷达回波演变特征进行分析。【结果】1)此次冬季冰雹过程发生在静止锋背景下,受高空槽引导冷空气补充,中高空干冷平流侵入,加剧了中高层干冷与低层暖湿形成的不稳定和对流出现的冰雹天气,0 ℃层和 - 20 ℃层高度比春季降雹时高度偏低 60 ~ 100 hPa。2) 此次降雹具有高悬强回波及弱回波区、V 型缺口、三体散射、钩状回波等典型特征。钩状回波特征对于大冰雹有较好的指示作用,降雹频次较多时段前及降雹时出现多次 V 型缺口,45 dBz 回波高度扩展到 - 20 ℃层上 30 min 内出现大冰雹。3)3 个单体增长特性不一致,“跃增型 ”单体孕育时间较长,产生大冰雹的概率较高,2 号和 3 号单体出现“多阶跃增 ”,且相邻阶段跃增均呈现发展—跃增—降雹—减弱—再发展—跃增—降雹的趋势。4)此次过程以 45 dBz 回波高度在 0 ℃层上且回波强度 Z≥55 dBz、垂直累积液态水含量 VIL≥20 kg/m2 作为冰雹识别指标,冰雹预警时间提前量为 18 ~ 30 min , 比以往研究提前 12 min。【结论】研究结论增强对山区冬季冰雹云发生发展演变规律的认识,提高预报预警能力。

    Abstract:

    Abstract : To further enhance the understanding of winter hail events and improve the warning capacity of winter hail in Guizhou , based on sounding data , ERA5 , and Doppler radar observations , this article analyzes the synoptic conditions and radar echo evolution characteristics of the hailstorm event in Guizhou on January 19 , 2024 by using the statistical method . The results show that : (1) The hailstorm was initiated by dry-cold advection intrusion under quasi-stationary front conditions , which enhanced thermal instability through contrasting airmass properties . The 0 ℃ freezing layer and - 20 ℃ layer were 60 - 100 hPa lower than during the spring hail processes . (2) This hail event exhibited typical characteristics of high-suspended strong echoes , weak echo areas ,V-shaped notches , three-body scatter , and hook echoes . The feature of hook echo is a good indicator of large-size hailstone events with stone diameter larger than 20 mm. Multiple V-shaped notches appeared before the periods with more hailfall and during hailfall . Large-size hailstones appeared within 30 min when the 45 dBz echo extended above the - 20 ℃ layer. (3) The three supercells showed distinct growth patterns . The " jump-growth " type had the prolonged gestation period , with longer gestation increasing the probability of large-size hailstone events . Supercells 2 and 3 exhibited " multi-stage jumps " , each following the development-jump-hailfall-weakening- redevelopment-jump-hailfall cycles . (4) Using hail criteria (45 dBz height above the 0 ℃ layer , Z≥55 dBz , VIL ≥20 kg/m2 ) , the advance of hail warning time is 18 - 30 min , which is 12 min earlier than that found in previous studies . This is agood reference for strengthening the understanding of the occurrence , development and evolution of hail clouds in winter in mountainous areas and improving the ability of forecasting and early warning.

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冷海燕,曾勇,吴静,等.贵州冬季 1 次大范围冰雹过程雷达特征分析[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(1):9-18.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-22
  • 录用日期:2025-10-22
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-10
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